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My actual betting plan — how to bet on Brazil vs. Norway?
Based on all the information, my betting plan is as follows:
Main position: Total goals under 2.5 (medium-high position). Brazil's defense is extremely solid (only 1 goal conceded in the group stage), and Norway's tactical core is defensive counterattacks, so they will not actively press forward to attack. There won't be many goals.
Secondary position: Norway +1 (handicap +1) (medium position). I think it's hard for Brazil to win by two goals. Norway's defensive resilience and the psychological advantage from historical head-to-head records all point to a game with a margin of one goal or less.
Small position: Draw (small position). 24% implied probability, I think the real draw probability is around 30%. Norway has the ability to drag the game into extra time.
Very small position: Norway upset win (very small position). 22.4% probability is not high, but Haaland's individual ability is enough to change any game. If Norway beats Brazil again, the return would be extremely impressive.
Total investment controlled within 15% of total capital.
#广场预测世界杯赢40000U