Polymarket has a new question: "Will the U.S. government cancel public access to another major AI model?"

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, a new event "Will the U.S. government cancel public access to another major AI model?" has a current probability of 33%.

The settlement rule is: If the U.S. federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measure that substantially restricts U.S. public access to a major AI model by the end of 2026, the market result will be "Yes." Otherwise, the market result will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the U.S. government whose effect is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a certain AI model within the United States. Additionally, the settlement rule emphasizes that regardless of the true purpose or nominal target of the action, if the action actually results in the public being unable to access the model within the United States—such as prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments—as long as ordinary members of the public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the United States, it qualifies. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of general public access that are not caused by any formal action of the U.S. government do not qualify.

A "mainstream AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models that are task-specific, or that are outdated and used only for research or preview purposes, do not meet this standard.

The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model is thereby prohibited from public access within the United States. A temporary prohibition of public access to a model qualifies. However, if an action has already been implemented or a resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.

The information sources for this market are official information and announcements from the U.S. government and relevant AI companies. However, some reliable reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.

The Odaily Seer channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.