On Friday, lithium carbonate futures reached a dual milestone—the Guangzhou Futures Exchange officially introduced foreign traders to participate in lithium carbonate futures and options trading, while the main contract rose 4% during the session, breaking through the 170,000 yuan/ton mark. The core logic of this rebound can be understood from several levels: First, the worst is over, and short-covering occurs. The negative impact of the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine had been fully priced in by the market, and after the news was confirmed, short sellers took profits, and the pessimistic sentiment improved, pushing prices higher. Second, demand continues to be strong. In the first half of the year, demand for power and energy storage exceeded expectations. From January to May, China's cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries reached 783.4 GWh, up 48.5% year-on-year, of which energy storage battery sales were 255.5 GWh, up 87.7% year-on-year. In July, the production schedule for LFP increased by 7% month-on-month, and for NCM materials by 3% month-on-month, maintaining a month-on-month growth trend in downstream production schedules.
Looking ahead, the short-term contradictions exposed by warehouse receipts and basis have eased somewhat, and July's production schedule is performing well. In the short term, destocking is expected to accelerate, and the tight supply-demand balance will continue, providing a short-term stimulus to prices. However, in the medium term, one needs to be wary of the supply increase from the resumption of production at Jianxiawo and the concentrated arrival of lithium ore from Zimbabwe at ports, which may cause the monthly destocking level in the third quarter to decrease month by month. Overall, lithium carbonate may be volatile with a slight upward bias in the short term, but the upside in the medium term is constrained by supply increases, and it may maintain a wide-range oscillation pattern. (Everbright Futures)

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Everbright Futures: On the first day of internationalization, lithium carbonate futures prices returned to the 170k yuan mark.

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