Michael Saylor: The biggest evolution of Bitcoin in the next decade is that the protocol layer remains stable.

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金色财经报道,Michael Saylor 发文表示,比特币未来十年最大的演进,将来自协议层更少变化,以及在其他领域发挥更大作用。他认为,比特币基础层将更加稳固,资本市场将继续深化,应用将扩展,机构将进入,世界将在比特币之上构建。比特币不是科技股、支付公司或竞相增加功能的软件平台,而是货币网络,其目的不是快速行动并打破事物,而是缓慢前进且不被破坏。Saylor 表示,比特币已赢得第一场重要战役,世界正越来越理解比特币是数字资本,具备稀缺、耐久、可携带、可分割、可编程和全球可转移等属性。比特币最强版本并不是「取代所有支付轨道」,而是成为中立、全球、稀缺资产,使资本、信贷和商业围绕其组织。基础层并非为咖啡支付优化,而是为最终结算、储备资产、抵押品结算和最终所有权转移而设计。他认为,比特币四年周期仍然重要,但不再是主导模型。未来十年,比特币走势将更少由矿工发行驱动,更多由 ETF、企业财库、主权储备、银行信贷、衍生品、保险、抵押品和全球储蓄等资本流决定。减半会收紧供应,资本流则决定增长轨迹。数字信贷将加速比特币采用,使比特币资本与更广泛金融系统连接。Saylor 表示,未来十年的主要问题不是比特币能否存续,而是经济敞口是否仍与真实比特币连接,还是形成过多「纸面比特币」。托管透明度、储备证明、风险管理、资本结构和交易对手风险都将变得重要。他预计,到 2036 年,比特币将被更广泛持有、更深度机构化、更具政治重要性,并成为数字信贷市场的重要抵押资产;而基础协议本身可能比其周围构建的一切变化更少。金色财经报道,Michael Saylor stated that the biggest evolution of Bitcoin over the next ten years will come from fewer changes at the protocol layer and a greater role in other areas. He believes that the Bitcoin base layer will become more stable, capital markets will continue to deepen, applications will expand, institutions will enter, and the world will build on top of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a tech stock, a payments company, or a software platform racing to add features; it is a monetary network whose purpose is not to move fast and break things, but to move slowly and remain unbroken. Saylor said that Bitcoin has already won its first major battle, and the world is increasingly understanding that Bitcoin is digital capital, possessing attributes such as scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, programmability, and global transferability. The strongest version of Bitcoin is not to "replace all payment rails," but to become a neutral, global, scarce asset around which capital, credit, and commerce are organized. The base layer is not optimized for buying coffee, but for final settlement, reserve assets, collateral settlement, and ultimate ownership transfer. He believes that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is still important, but it is no longer the dominant model. Over the next decade, Bitcoin's price action will be driven less by miner issuance and more by capital flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves, bank credit, derivatives, insurance, collateral, and global savings. The halving will tighten supply, while capital flows will determine the growth trajectory. Digital credit will accelerate Bitcoin adoption, connecting Bitcoin capital with the broader financial system. Saylor said that the main question for the next decade is not whether Bitcoin will survive, but whether economic exposure remains connected to real Bitcoin or whether too much "paper Bitcoin" is created. Custody transparency, proof of reserves, risk management, capital structure, and counterparty risk will all become important. He predicts that by 2036, Bitcoin will be more widely held, more deeply institutionalized, more politically significant, and become an important collateral asset in the digital credit market; while the base protocol itself may change less than everything built around it.
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