Lately, I keep seeing large on-chain transfers being interpreted as movements of smart money. To be honest, I used to stare at these signals trying to find patterns, only to realize later that I was just making up stories about randomness.

The same goes for interest rates. The Fed hints at something, and the group starts speculating on how funds will rotate into crypto, as if the chain is very clear. But now I think the transmission from macro to positions is very messy, with countless people's fear and greed in between, and it's impossible to sort out.

So now I no longer chase explanations. Admitting that many things are just random actually helps me sleep better. Keep a light position, wait for the sentiment to subside, and let's leave it at that for now.