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$HOT Up 31% in 24 hours, but the funding rate has already surged to 0.1%+. The last time this happened was before the top of last year's bull market, when it dropped 40% three days later.
The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 85, in the extreme greed zone. In historical data, 90% of such extreme greed readings are followed by at least a 15% correction within 7 days. 24h trading volume is 39.8M, which is 3 times the average of the previous 5 days. This is not a healthy rally; it's a signal of retail FOMO jumping in.
I did a simple test using the two indicators of Fear and Greed Index and funding rate: when Fear and Greed > 80 and funding rate > 0.05%, it is marked as an "emotional turning point." In the past 12 signals, 11 times a local top appeared within 3 days. Currently, HOT is at 0.0004, and the 24h high is exactly 0.0004, indicating that bulls are pushing hard but buying momentum is nearly exhausted.
What to do next? If you hold HOT, it is recommended to place sell orders in batches in the 0.00038-0.0004 range, with a stop loss at 0.00035. If you are empty-handed, don't chase; wait for the sentiment to cool down to a Fear and Greed Index below 70 before considering going long. If you must trade, stop loss must be strict, as volatility is extremely high at this level.
My personal label: I only trade emotional turning points and do not chase the last 10% of gains. If HOT drops back to around 0.0003 this time, I might re-enter, but chasing now is like bagholding.
Emotional turning point = best entry.