#非农爆冷打压加息预期

Bitcoin on July 5, 2026

I. Current Market Situation (Real-Time Today)

The current price is fluctuating in the $63,200 range.

1. Rebound backdrop: In early July, it hit a low of $57,758. Over the next 4 days, it rebounded by more than 8%. The core driver was that the June non-farm payroll data came in far below expectations. The market reduced the probability of Fed rate hikes within the year; the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened; and risk assets collectively repaired.
2. Short-term technical signals
- The daily chart has restored with 4 consecutive bullish candles, but the 1-hour RSI has entered overbought territory, and the MACD bullish momentum is shrinking. There is short-term downward pullback pressure that needs to be digested.
- Key resistance: $63,500. It was tested three times during the day but failed to hold above it, and selling pressure is concentrated.
- Stepwise support: $62,800 and $62,200. If the pullback does not break $62,000, the rebound structure remains intact. If it breaks above $63,500 on increased volume and stabilizes, the next level to watch is the $64,000 area.
3. Market sentiment: In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network reached $212 million. Long and short positioning is in fierce contention. The rebound is an oversold technical repair rather than a reversal of the weaker medium-term trend.

II. Macro Core Logic (Determines the Medium-Term Direction)

1. Fed policy is still the biggest constraint
Inflation rebounded to 4.1% in May. In the June policy meeting, the tone turned hawkish: half of the officials supported the possibility of rate hikes within 2026, and extending the high-interest-rate maintenance cycle keeps rates elevated for longer. The Fed canceled its forward guidance, and price action now fully follows fluctuations in inflation and employment data, with volatility continuing to rise.
This rebound is only a temporary cooling of rate-hike expectations due to the weaker non-farm data. Once inflation warms up again, it will immediately suppress BTC valuation.

2. Changes in funding conditions
In early June, spot ETFs saw net outflows for 13 consecutive days, and the cumulative $4.4 billion sell-off wave ended on June 5. However, there has been no ongoing large-scale net inflow since then, and institutional funds remain somewhat on the sidelines. Strategy, a listed company holding BTC, has broken its long-term commitment to hoard coins, increasing expectations of sell-pressure on market supply (chips).

3. Fundamental resilience (Long-term support)
During the period of sustained pullbacks, Bitcoin’s overall network hash rate stayed at historic highs, and the mining network did not collapse. Long-term holders’ average cost basis is $78,000, and the current price is at a discount. On-chain selling momentum is gradually drying up, and there is no fundamental collapse logic.

III. Market Judgment Across Different Time Periods

1. Short term (this week to mid-/late July): Choppy range trading to grind the bottom; rebounds are hard to sustain
- Main line: After an oversold repair, it oscillates and pulls back; the range $60,000–$64,000 is a back-and-forth battle.
- Two scenarios:
① If it falls back under pressure at $63,500, pull back to build strength around the $62,000–$62,200 support.
② If it holds above $63,500 on increased volume, it will briefly test $64,000 before running into resistance again.
- Risk: Inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials could interrupt the rebound at any time, with the possibility of a second dip toward around $58,000.

2. Medium term (3–6 months): Bottoming cycle; difficult to form a trend bull market
BTC fell by 30% cumulatively in the first half of 2026, and it closed lower for two straight quarters. This is a deep pullback cycle after the halving.
Institutional mainstream views are split:

- Bearish: Based on a four-year cycle calculation, this bear market may last until October, with an extreme downside in the $43,000–$51,000 range.
- Neutral/Bullish: Around $60,000 is the core bottom range. July–August is the window to grind the bottom and set up positions. The oscillation range is $59,000–$70,000. Wait for a clear signal of a Fed rate cut before starting a trend.
Large investment bank Standard Chartered maintains its year-end target price of $100,000, defining this round of decline as a medium- to long-term buying opportunity. However, the prerequisite is that easing liquidity materializes in the fourth quarter.

3. Long term (the 2027–2028 halving cycle)
The four-year halving cycle pattern for Bitcoin remains unchanged. A true primary upswing wave requires the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle to start and for sustained institutional ETF inflows to create a synchronized catalyst. The long-term “digital gold” narrative remains intact. If easing liquidity restarts, institutions’ target is a neutral valuation of more than $140,000.

IV. Key Points to Watch Today

1. The movement of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index; once they rebound, BTC will face pressure.
2. Whether the $63,500 resistance can be effectively broken through.
3. Whether ETF capital shows continuous net inflows during the day.
4. How evening U.S. stock risk appetite correlates.