Brother Star on Crypto 丨0705 $ETH Today's Strategy

Entry Point: 1745 - 1750
Stop Loss: 1735

First Target: 1770

Second Target: 1785

Fundamental Analysis (Betting on a Bounce-Back)

Vacuum Period After ETF Outflows: Although recent poor ETF data has dampened sentiment, consecutive net outflows often mean selling pressure is being concentratedly released. When the market is overly pessimistic, a small amount of buying can trigger violent short-covering rallies. The current lows present an excellent risk-reward ratio for short-term bounces.

Safe Haven Double-Edged Sword of Geopolitical Tensions: Despite geopolitical tensions weighing on risk assets, Ethereum, as a blockchain infrastructure, has not seen a decline in actual usage. After extreme panic subsides, some long-term capital will use the "golden pit" created by geopolitical events to make left-side allocations.

Reverse Interpretation of Macro Data: While the strong U.S. economy dampens rate cut expectations, it also means lower recession risk. For the crypto market, as long as there is no liquidity crisis, pullbacks under a strong economic backdrop are often the accumulation phase of a bull market, not the start of a crash.

Three-Year Cycle Perspective: From a historical cycle perspective, after a long period of value reversion, ETH's current price is in a relatively bottom-level "accumulation zone." Major institutions often use this grinding downtrend to repeatedly shake out weak hands around 1,750, aiming to clean out unstable floating positions and reduce resistance for future upward moves.

On-Chain Data Signal: The ETH balance on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that a large number of coins are being withdrawn to cold wallets or staking contracts. This supply tightening suggests that despite low prices, holders' confidence remains strong, and the underlying support is much thicker than it appears on the surface.#非农爆冷打压加息预期