I woke up again at three in the morning, scrolling through Layer2 threads still arguing about TPS, and suddenly felt a bit amused—last year I was also obsessed with who could save a few cents on gas, but now it seems pretty pointless.

To put it bluntly, stablecoin supply increases and ETF capital inflows—everyone knows they are correlated with coin prices, but saying "because A therefore B" is just fooling yourself. I've seen too many times when the data aligns perfectly, yet the trend goes completely opposite, and then everyone stands around scrambling for reasons.

When your hands get itchy, it's often not because you see an opportunity, but because you see an "explanation." The brain loves stories too much—connecting two dots and thinking you understand, and that's when small positions easily turn into heavy ones. Now I force myself to first write two reasons why this logic might be wrong. If I still want to move after writing, then I move; most of the time, I just stop after writing.

The upside of being a night owl is that no one urges you to confirm in the middle of the night.