Macro Wind Vane and Macro Wind Vane and New Capital Narrative: The Crypto Market Game Under U.S. Stock Market Closure

In the grand narrative of the global capital market, the boundary between traditional finance and emerging digital assets is becoming increasingly blurred. Currently, as the U.S. Independence Day holiday arrives, the U.S. stock market is in a closed state, but the aftershocks of the macroeconomy and the undercurrents of the crypto market together paint a complex picture full of games and opportunities.

Macro Game: Cooling Employment Data and Fading Rate Hike Expectations

The core driver of the global market recently still revolves around expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Previously, the U.S. Department of Labor released June nonfarm payroll data that was far below market expectations, with only 57k new jobs added, and the data for the previous two months was also significantly revised downward. This dovish macro signal, like a shot in the arm, quickly eased market concerns about an overheated labor market and the Fed's aggressive tightening policy.

Affected by this, market bets on Fed rate hikes have significantly shrunk, and the expected timing of rate hikes has been postponed. The improvement in expectations for macro liquidity directly triggered a rebound in risk assets. During the U.S. stock market holiday, Nasdaq 100 futures continued to rebound, while spot gold, silver and other precious metals also took the opportunity to strengthen, reversing their previous consecutive decline. This repair of macro sentiment provided a rare respite and rebound window for the crypto market.

Crypto Market: Short-Term Rebound Coexists with Structural Concerns

Catalyzed by macro positives, the crypto market saw a full-line upward recovery. Bitcoin rebounded strongly after hitting a 21-month cyclical low, once approaching the $63,000 mark; Ethereum and other mainstream tokens also recorded varying degrees of gains. Market panic eased, and the Fear and Greed Index rose back to above 20.

However, behind this seemingly lively rebound, the crypto market still faces deep-seated structural concerns.

First is the extreme divergence in ETF fund flows. Although at the beginning of July, spot Bitcoin ETFs ended consecutive days of net outflows, recording over $200 million in positive inflows on a single day, this was more of a rotation of funds among different issuers rather than widespread institutional re-entry. In fact, throughout June, spot Bitcoin ETFs set a record of billions of dollars in net outflows, showing institutions' cautious stance in the current macro environment.

Second is the 'siphoning' effect and the correlation paradox. Over the past year, U.S. stocks have repeatedly hit new highs driven by the AI boom, while Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its historic highs. Funds were heavily diverted to AI tech stocks and mega IPOs, putting pressure on crypto market liquidity. At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks (especially the Nasdaq index) has risen to high levels recently, completely losing its 'safe-haven asset' attribute in the face of macro risks, degrading into a high-volatility risk asset.

New Capital Narrative: RWA and Asset Tokenization Accelerate Breaking Out

Although the secondary market faces dual pressures from macro and funding, at the primary market and infrastructure level, the crypto industry is ushering in a new narrative explosion—the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) is accelerating its integration with traditional finance.

Recently, Securitize, a leading company in the asset tokenization field, successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange and simultaneously issued tokenized stocks on the Solana and Avalanche networks, achieving 24/7 seamless trading of traditional U.S. stocks and on-chain assets. At the same time, Ondo Finance also launched tokenized versions of the BlackRock S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Micron Technology based on the SEC custody framework. These landmark events show that crypto technology is transitioning from mere 'value speculation' to 'financial infrastructure upgrade'.

Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

The current crypto market is at a critical crossroads. On one hand, the cooling of macro rate hike expectations and the booming development of the RWA track provide solid support for the industry's long-term value; on the other hand, ETF capital outflows, regulatory policy uncertainties (such as the CLARITY Act), and changes in capital strategies of leading companies like MicroStrategy are all suppressing the market's upside in the short term.

For investors, in the brief calm of the U.S. stock market closure, it is even more important to stay clear-headed. The crypto market is undergoing a profound transformation from 'momentum-driven' to 'fundamental-driven'. Before the macro policy path becomes completely clear, abandoning short-term speculative games and focusing on long-term value with real yields and compliant infrastructure may be the optimal solution to navigate the current cycle.

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