Star Says Crypto 丨0705 $BTC Today's Strategy

Entry Point: 630 - 634
Stop Loss: 638
Take Profit Targets: First Target 62500
Second Target 61800

 

Fundamental Analysis

ETF Inflow Shows Concerns: Despite earlier inflows, the latest data indicates a significant slowdown in BTC ETF net inflows, with even signs of single-day net outflows. Wall Street institutions are increasingly willing to take profits at high levels, lacking sustained buying support, leading to heavy selling pressure above.

Geopolitical Tensions Disrupt Risk Appetite: Recent global geopolitical tensions remain high. While risk aversion has increased, it has not fully translated into buying momentum for Bitcoin. Instead, some liquidity has retreated from risk assets back to the US dollar cash. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, with insufficient bullish momentum.

Macro Data Pressure: The latest robust US economic data has weakened expectations of an early Fed rate cut. The prolonged higher interest rate environment ("Higher for Longer") directly drains liquidity away from risk assets like Bitcoin, limiting upside potential.

Three-Year Cycle Perspective: Looking back over the past three years, BTC experiences multiple "fake breakouts" to flush out leverage during each pre and post-halving choppy period. The current trend aligns with the mid-bull market correction and washout pattern—"two steps forward, three steps back"—using prolonged grinding lower to trade for future upside.

On-Chain Data Signals: Long-term holders (LTH) show clear distribution (selling) above 63,000, while short-term holders' cost basis is concentrated around 60,000. This suggests the current price is in a sensitive zone for chip exchange, and major players are not in a hurry to push the price higher.#非农爆冷打压加息预期