I was thinking about something today: if Bitcoin really drops to $50k next, would it be better to directly buy the coin or to buy MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock?

After thinking about it all afternoon, my answer is to buy Bitcoin and stay away from MicroStrategy.
Why? Let me give you the simplest analogy:
Buying Bitcoin is like directly buying a piece of solid digital gold.
Buying MicroStrategy is like buying shares of a company that borrows money to hoard gold. This company currently holds over 840k Bitcoins with an average cost of $75k. If Bitcoin drops to $50k, it's already down more than 30%.
And worst of all, MicroStrategy just recently opened the door to "allow selling coins," and its stock price has dropped to below the value of the coins it holds (40% discount). That means even if Bitcoin rebounds, its stock might not keep up because the market fears it will sell coins to repay debt or face a meltdown.
When you buy Bitcoin, you only need to worry about price fluctuations. When you buy MicroStrategy, besides worrying about price, you also have to worry about whether the company will run into trouble, whether management will mess things up, or whether it will be forced to dump its holdings. These extra risks are not worth taking, in my opinion.
Some people say MicroStrategy has high leverage and will surge more when prices go up, but after that "walking on air" effect, the death spiral comes very quickly.
So my choice is clear: buy Bitcoin directly at $50k.
Now let me talk about my view on the current market: at the $60k level, I think the bear market has pretty much bottomed out. All the people who were supposed to run have run, and the positions that were supposed to be liquidated have been largely liquidated, while big money is quietly accumulating. Next, there will likely be a grinding sideways period, maybe two or three months, maybe longer, but as long as you hold on and don't sell at a loss, after you get through this boring stretch, dawn is not far off. This is not a time to panic; instead, it's time to stay alert.