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Next Week's Market Preview: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes Ahead, Market Focus on Rate Hike Path and Gold Trends
· Fed meeting minutes: To be released in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the market hopes to find more details in them about the first meeting chaired by the newly appointed Fed Chair Waller, to gauge whether there is still room for rate hikes by year-end. At present, the rates market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, and believes there is a certain probability that an early move could occur in October.
· Fed officials’ remarks: Officials including Williams, Logan, and Waller will speak one after another. The market will watch whether they adjust their hawkish stance in response to the recent weakness in non-farm payroll data.
· ECB meeting minutes: To be released on Thursday, investors will focus on the ECB’s latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and subsequent monetary policy.
· Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision: The market expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and will watch whether it delivers on its prior hawkish guidance.
· Important economic data: U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global services PMI, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims will be released in sequence, providing new clues for the market to judge the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates.
· Gold outlook: HSBC believes that, against the backdrop of real interest rates staying at high levels and a somewhat stronger U.S. dollar, gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term. However, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global move away from the U.S. dollar still support the logic for longer-term upside.
· Earnings season kicks off: Companies including PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss will be among the first to release their second-quarter results. The market will focus on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year earnings guidance, setting the stage for the bank earnings season in mid-July.