Dense and packed—time to start earning, brothers.

## I. Overall Trend at Present (Qualitative Assessment)

1. The medium- to long-term daily chart trend is still a bearish downward channel. In June, the overall drop was 35%, falling from 1850 all the way to the phase low of $1505. At this stage, what we’re seeing is merely an oversold technical rebound and recovery after a big selloff—not a reversal of the downward trend. Throughout the rebound, trading volume has been relatively weak, and there isn’t enough willingness from incremental long-side funds to enter the market.

2. ETH has been weaker than Bitcoin over the long term. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has continued to trend downward, with capital prioritizing a “BTC cluster.” Ethereum spot ETFs have frequently posted phased net outflows, and institutions’ buying appetite is sluggish—this is the most core bearish factor weighing on the market.

3. After the early deep daily selloff, the RSI entered the oversold range, creating a short-term need for a corrective rebound. At present, the market is in a $1600–1800 box range, grinding to find direction, making it hard to see a short-term one-way surge or one-way crash.

## II. Precise Key Support and Resistance Levels + Concentrated Liquidation Ranges (Contract Focus Reference)

### (1) Upward Pressure Levels (from near to far)

1. First major intraday pressure: 1765–1780 USDT
The current price is approaching this resistance band. Short-term bargain-hunting retail that piled in near the lows has become trapped, while short positions’ orders to sell are concentrated as well as longs’ profit-taking orders. Without volume pushing higher, a spike up is likely to immediately pull back—this is the first hurdle of the current rebound. Only by breaking through and holding above it can upside space be opened.

2. Medium-term strong pressure: 1800–1845 USDT
The daily 20-day moving average plus the prior consolidation platform. Large volumes of short-term long liquidation points are also located here—this is a zone where the short-side forces are positioned. As long as price cannot hold above 1845, all rebounds will be categorized as weak rebound conditions.

3. The tipping point for a trend reversal: 1960–2000 USDT
A major monthly-level threshold. Only a breakout with volume and a sustained hold above $2000 can end the continuous two months of decline and completely reverse the medium-term bearish positioning. This is unlikely to be achieved in the short term.

### (2) Downward Support Levels + Leverage Concentration “Blow-Up” Zones

1. Short-term immediate support: 1720–1730 USDT
This is the lifeline of the current rebound. If it breaks, the short-term rebound is immediately declared over, and the market will revert to weak consolidation followed by downward movement.

2. Core long-side defense base: 1650–1680 USDT
A cost area for large amounts of spot dip-buying and low-level long positions, with massive long-side leverage liquidation orders accumulating below. Once this level is lost, it will trigger a chain reaction of long-side stampede and sell-off.

3. The phase “life-or-death” bottom line: 1550–1600 USDT
The central pivot where the market tested lows and stabilized twice in June. $1505 is the lowest point of this round. A valid breakdown below 1505 means longs will be completely routed. The next round’s downside target is the $1400–1480 range.

### (3) Concentration Zones Where Longs and Shorts Liquidate

• **Short-side concentrated blow-up zone:** 1830~1860. If the price is pushed up into this area, short positions will be stopped out in batches, leading to a rapid spike higher in the short term.

• **Long-side dense liquidation band:** 1640, 1550, 1505. A breakdown at any of these levels will trigger batch liquidations of longs, accelerating the sell-off.