Semiconductor Expansion Super Cycle "Golden Window": Trillion-Level Inflection Point Dividends for Materials and Equipment

The expansion cycle, combined with the HBM demand surge, is cascading from the top down into the semiconductor equipment and materials segments, creating historic investment opportunities. The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $125.5 billion in 2025, and is projected to further rise to $138.1 billion in 2026; the semiconductor materials market is expected to reach $73.2 billion in 2025. With domestic substitution accelerating in parallel, the equipment localization rate jumped from 16% in 2024 to 21% in 2025, while the material-side localization rate remains low (only 5% for high-end targets and about 30% for electronic specialty gases), leaving broad room for substitution.

Changxin has not yet IPO’d. During the high-demand cycle, domestic investment is expected to closely follow overseas demand, and the company may further increase capital expenditures to keep pace with global capacity expansion.