Institutions: The divergence between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may be only temporary.

Golden Finance reported that on July 5, despite the U.S. stock market continuing to hit new highs and Bitcoin's relatively weak performance so far this year, asset management institutions Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe that this divergence will not persist for long.

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage stated that current market funds are flowing more toward themes such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading, rather than digital assets, reflecting a shift in capital allocation rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded the full-year level of 2025, the scale of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) has grown by over 60% within the year, and crypto network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high, with the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuation reaching a historical peak.

Charles Schwab's digital asset research head, Jim Ferraioli, believes that Bitcoin's current trend still aligns with historical cycles after each halving. He noted that Bitcoin typically takes over a year to return above the production cost of inefficient miners, which is currently around $95k, while the average market holding cost is about $80k, meaning the price rebound may continue to face selling pressure from positions breaking even.

Ferraioli believes that although the "four-year halving cycle" is not an absolute rule, this pattern has deeply influenced investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market gradually matures, the magnitude of volatility in each future cycle may diminish.