US debt scale reaches $39 trillion, sparking long-term concerns; analysts say fiscal path risks becoming unsustainable.

Jinse Finance reports that as of July 5, the U.S. national debt has risen to approximately $39 trillion, with public debt equivalent to the size of U.S. GDP. Annual interest payments have reached about $1 trillion, surpassing the defense budget. The U.S. Treasury system can be traced back to the debt consolidation reforms promoted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790, when the federal government collectively assumed the wartime debts of the states and pledged full repayment, thereby establishing the U.S. credit system and laying the foundation for the global status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

Today, U.S. Treasury bonds are regarded as one of the core assets of the global financial system, supporting the reserve currency status of the United States dollar and widely held by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. However, as the debt scale continues to expand, market concerns about long-term sustainability are intensifying.

According to estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds approximately 210%, the fiscal system may face unsustainable risks. Currently, the U.S. ratio stands at about 100%, and the Congressional Budget Office projects it could rise to 175% by 2056.

Analysts believe that under the scenario of rising healthcare spending and persistently widening fiscal deficits, this risk threshold may arrive earlier, and the long-term stability of the debt structure is facing stricter scrutiny from markets and policymakers.