Institutions: The divergence between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may be only temporary.

BlockBeats News, July 5 — Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin has been relatively weak so far this year; however, both asset manager Hashdex and Charles Schwab believe that this divergence will not last long.

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said that, for now, market capital is flowing more into themes such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest-rate trading rather than digital assets. This reflects a shift in capital allocation rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He noted that in the first half of this year, stablecoin trading volume has already exceeded the level for all of 2025. The size of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) has grown by more than 60% year-to-date, and crypto network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high. The divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations has reached the highest level in history.

Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Asset Research at Charles Schwab, said that Bitcoin’s current trend still aligns with the historical cycles seen after previous halvings. He said that Bitcoin typically takes more than a year to return above the production cost of inefficient miners, which is currently about $95,000, while the market’s average cost basis for holdings is about $80,000. This means that during a price rebound, it may continue to face sell pressure as investors get back to break-even.

Ferraioli believes that while the “four-year halving cycle” is not an absolute rule, this pattern has profoundly shaped investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market gradually matures, the magnitude of volatility in each future cycle may lessen.