From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Analysis, Order Flow, and Price Action, a Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends

$BTC I. Dow Theory
Primary Trend (1-hour level): Since the June 3 high of 67,410, the medium-term downtrend has been extremely clear. The price fell from 67,410 to the July 1 low of 57,720, a drop of approximately 9,690. However, since July 1, the price has shown a clear "higher low" pattern: 57,720 (July 1) → 58,255 (July 1) → 59,307 (July 2) → 59,500 (July 3), and from July 2-5, it continuously bounced, breaking through the integer levels of 61,000, 62,000, and 63,000, reaching a high of 63,087 (early morning of July 5). The primary trend remains downtrend, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened, and the price is testing resistance of the major downtrend line.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The short-term uptrend since the July 1 low of 57,720 is being confirmed. Short-term highs have moved up from 59,500 (July 1) to 60,444 (July 1) → 61,881 (July 2) → 62,872 (July 3) → 63,087 (July 5), with short-term lows moving up in sync. In early trading on July 5, the price consolidated strongly in the 62,900–63,000 range, indicating sustained bullish strength. The short-term trend has shifted from "consolidation bottoming" to "uptrend."
Dow Conclusion: The primary trend remains a deep downtrend, but downside momentum has significantly weakened, and the price is testing resistance of the downtrend line. The short-term trend has entered an upward phase. 62,000 is the short-term support line; if lost, a pullback to 60,500–59,500 is expected; if the price breaks and holds above 63,500, the primary downtrend is confirmed to reverse, with targets of 64,500–65,500.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal Structure: On the 15-minute level, recent fractals show a clear bullish pattern of "higher lows and higher highs."
Top Fractal: Appears at levels such as 62,304 (July 3, 15:00), 62,872 (July 3, 21:00), 63,087 (July 5, 07:45). Top fractals are moving up, from the 62,300 range to the 63,000 range, indicating increasing bullish strength.
Bottom Fractal: Appears at levels such as 57,720 (July 1, 01:00), 58,255 (July 1, 12:00), 59,500 (July 3, 13:15), 62,459 (July 3, 21:30), 62,730 (July 4, 16:15). Bottom fractals are significantly moving up, indicating strong buying support.
Bi and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 57,720 to the top fractal at 63,087 (July 5, 07:45), it forms an extremely strong upward Bi, with a rise of about 5,367, showing great momentum. Currently, starting from the top fractal at 63,087, a new downward Bi is being constructed, but the pullback amplitude is minimal, indicating that bearish strength is clearly exhausted.
Central Hub Area: In the 62,000–64,000 range, from July 3-5, the K-lines are densely interwoven, forming a new upward consolidation hub. The current price of 62,940 is near the upper edge of this hub, in the construction phase. In the 58,000–61,000 range, from June 25 to July 2, a bottoming hub was already formed, and the price has completely broken above its upper edge, entering an accelerated rise phase after the breakout.
Chan Conclusion: The upward Bi has extremely strong momentum (+5,367), and currently, it is in a consolidation phase after the extension of the upward Bi. Short-term attention is on whether an effective top fractal forms near 63,087; if not, the upward Bi extends, targeting 64,000–65,000; if 62,000 is lost and 61,500 is broken, the downward Bi resumes.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the wave structure on the 1-hour level, the trend since the June 3 high of 67,410 is divided into wave patterns, showing a typical "five-wave decline completed + ABC rebound with C wave unfolding" structure:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 67,410 to 63,250 (June 4), a drop of about -4,160.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 63,250 to 67,254 (June 15), a rise of about +4,004.
Wave 3 (Main Declining Wave): From 67,254 to 58,026 (June 25), a drop of about -9,228.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 58,026 to 65,549 (June 22), a rise of about +7,523.
Wave 5 (Final Crash): From 65,549 to 57,720 (July 1), a drop of about -7,829.
Wave A (Rebound): From 57,720 to 61,881 (July 2), a rise of about +4,161.
Wave B (Pullback): From 61,881 to 59,500 (July 3, 13:15), a drop of about -2,381.
Wave C (Unfolding): From 59,500 to 63,087 (July 5), a rise of about +3,587. Wave C is near the equal-length target of Wave A (63,661); if Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, the target is about 65,200–66,000.
Elliott Conclusion: Currently in the unfolding phase of the ABC rebound C wave, with strong momentum in Wave C. If Wave C breaks 63,500 and continues to rally, the rebound target is 64,500–66,000; if Wave C forms a top fractal at 63,087 and falls below 62,000, Wave C fails, pulling back to 60,500.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: On June 25, during the crash, there was a very obvious volume increase. On July 1, when it hit a new low of 57,720, volume expanded significantly, indicating a full release of panic selling. From July 2-5, during the rebound, volume continued to moderately increase, and on the morning of July 5, when it pushed to 63,000, there was a clear increase in volume. Overall, it shows a positive volume-price combination of "crash with volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with continuous volume expansion."
Key Volume-Price Points:
- June 25, 13:00: Bearish candlestick with high volume (volume about 1.67B), crashing from 60,500 to 58,026, confirming panic selling.
- July 1, 01:00: Bearish candlestick with high volume (volume about 1.07B), probing to 57,720, forming a "bear trap."
- July 1, 12:00: Bullish candlestick with high volume (volume about 860M), surging from 58,255 to 60,444, confirming a bullish counterattack.
- July 5, 07:45: Bullish candlestick with high volume (volume about 750M), rallying from 62,800 to 63,087, confirming the continued unfolding of Wave C.
Last 10 15-minute K-lines: From 63,000 pulling back to 62,940, volume shows a shrinking pattern, as the market waits for direction in the 62,800–63,100 range.
Volume-Price Conclusion: After the rebound volume expansion on July 5, the current shrinking consolidation is a positive volume-price signal. Key observation points: If a breakout with volume occurs at 63,500–64,000, Wave C extends; if it breaks down through 62,000 with volume, Wave C ends.
V. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The Point of Control (POC) over the last 5 days is at 60,074. This is the area with the highest concentration of trading between bulls and bears. The current price of 62,940 is about 2,866 above the POC, representing a strong premium above the value area.
Current Position Analysis: The price at 62,940 is above the POC of 60,074, outside the upper edge of the Value Area (58,281–60,522). In order flow theory, a price breakout above the upper edge of the Value Area indicates that bulls have a clear advantage. The current price is in a strong premium area and requires continued volume confirmation to validate the breakout effectiveness.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 62,000–64,000: Current dense trading zone (July 3-5, forming a new HVN)
- 59,000–61,000: Core support HVN (dense trading zone from July 1-2)
- 57,700–58,500: Extreme support HVN (support zone from the July 1 crash)
- 64,500–66,000: Strong resistance HVN (dense trading zone from June 15-20)
Delta Analysis: Delta estimates show that during the crash on July 1 at 01:00, Delta turned sharply negative (on the order of -4.0 billion). During the rebound on July 1 at 12:00, Delta quickly turned positive (on the order of +2.5 billion). During the rally on July 5, Delta continued to turn positive (on the order of +3.0 billion), confirming active bullish attacks. Currently, the Delta MA12 is in positive territory (on the order of +1.2 billion), indicating that buying strength is dominant.
Order Flow Conclusion: The price has broken above the POC and the upper edge of the Value Area, in a strong premium area. The key HVN resistance above is at 63,500–64,000. If Delta continues positive and the price breaks through with volume, it is likely to rally to 65,000; if Delta turns negative and the price falls below 61,500, a pullback to 60,000 is expected.
VI. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 67,410 (phase high), 67,254 (June 15 secondary high), 65,549 (June 22 high)
- Key Resistance: 64,000 (integer level), 63,087 (July 5 high), 63,000 (integer level)
- Key Support: 62,500 (lower edge of July 5 consolidation zone), 62,000 (integer level), 61,000 (July 2 high), 59,500 (July 3 low)
Candlestick Patterns:
- July 1, 01:00: "Hammer" bottom pattern, rebounding after crashing from 59,500 to 57,720.
- July 1, 12:00: "Bullish engulfing" pattern, surging from 58,255 to 60,444.
- July 5, 07:45: Bullish candlestick with a short upper shadow, rallying from 62,800 to 63,087, showing continued bullish momentum.
- July 5, 08:00: Small bearish candlestick with shrinking volume, pulling back from 63,087 to 62,940, indicating minor selling pressure near 63,000.
Trend Structure:
- Short-term: Uptrend is confirmed, with lows and highs moving up in sync.
- Medium-term: The downtrend line from the June 3 high of 67,410 is being tested; if broken, the medium-term trend reverses.
Price Action Conclusion: The short-term is in a strong consolidation zone after a confirmed rebound. 62,000 is the short-term bull defense line, and 63,500 is the bull-bear demarcation line: a breakout would extend Wave C, targeting 64,500–65,000; a loss would pull back to the 61,500–60,500 range.
Comprehensive Analysis
Dow Theory indicates the primary trend remains a deep downtrend but with significantly weakened downside momentum; the short-term trend has entered an upward phase, with key levels at 63,500 (up) / 62,000 (down). Chan Theory shows extremely strong upward Bi momentum (+5,367), currently in a consolidation phase after the extension. Elliott Wave Theory confirms the completion of a five-wave decline and the unfolding of the ABC rebound C wave (+3,587), targeting 64,500–66,000. Volume-Price Analysis shows a positive combination of "crash with volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with continuous volume expansion." Order Flow indicates POC at 60,074, with the price in a strong premium area and Delta MA12 positive. Price Action shows "hammer" plus "bullish engulfing" bottom patterns, with short-term strength.
Short-term Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish Scenario: If the price shows a shrinking volume stop + bottom fractal + positive Delta near 62,500–62,800, consider going long, targeting 63,500 → 64,500, stop loss at 61,800.
- Bearish Scenario: If the rebound near 63,500–64,000 forms a top fractal accompanied by a volume-driven decline, confirming the end of Wave C, consider shorting, targeting 62,000 → 61,000, stop loss at 64,500.
- Current State: 62,940 is in a strong consolidation zone, with short-term bulls in the lead. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 63,500 to confirm Wave C extension before chasing the rally, or wait for a pullback to 62,500 to confirm support before considering going long.