Bitcoin Complete Four-Year Halving History Review (Collector's Edition)

1. First Block Reward Halving in 2012
Initial block reward was 50 BTC per block, reduced to 25 BTC after halving; the bull market peak occurred about 18 months after the halving, with BTC breaking $1,000 in late 2013, followed by a year-long deep bear market. In 2014, the Mt. Gox exchange collapsed, and the price continued to decline under pressure.

2. Second Halving in 2016
Block reward reduced to 12.5 BTC per block; the 2017 bull market surged to an all-time high of $20k, followed by a one-year bear market correction with a maximum drawdown of about 84%, dropping below $3,000 at the low.

3. Third Halving in 2020
Block reward reduced to 6.25 BTC per block, still following the pattern of peaking 18 months after the halving. In November 2021, it reached a high of $69k, then continued to decline for a year, hitting the bear market low of $15,400 in November 2022.

4. Cycle Change in 2024
On January 11, 2024, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF officially launched on Nasdaq, with BlackRock becoming one of the first approved institutions. On April 20, the fourth halving occurred, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC per block.
Based on the historical 18-month peak cycle, the market predicts that the top of this bull market will occur on October 3, 2025, at $126.2k, after which the market will enter another roughly one-year bear market adjustment cycle.

Combined with historical bear market drawdown data: the previous bear market had a maximum drawdown of 76%. If this cycle replicates the same decline, the theoretical price would drop to around $30k. However, unlike past cycles, this cycle has long-term capital support from spot ETF institutions, which significantly reduces the likelihood of extreme crashes. Therefore, there are two scenarios for the bottom of this cycle:
Pessimistic scenario: The market weakens extremely, and the price drops to the $30k range;
Neutral scenario: Institutional capital provides strong support, with bottom support around $60k.
Overall, the bottom price of this bear market is likely to fall in the $30k–$60k range.

From a time perspective, the adjustment cycle after the peak has historically been about 12 months. Originally, the bottom window was estimated to be around October 2026. However, with the current acceleration of capital flow in the market, the complete cycle may be shortened, and the bottom window is likely to fall between September and October 2026.

Supporting sentiment indicator reference: When the Fear and Greed Index falls to around 10, indicating extreme fear, it is a good signal for phased mid-to-long-term accumulation.

Long-term price outlook: If the next bull market begins after this bottom stabilizes, by the end of 2029, Bitcoin’s price is optimistically expected to range between $150k and $230k, offering about 4x upside from this bottom.

Practical Investment Advice

1. Abandon the idea of timing a single entry; build positions in stages
Do not bet on a single month or single price for a full position. Divide the $30k–$60k bottom range into three tiers: establish a base position near $60k, add positions in the $45k range, and increase allocation near $30k. Reserve idle funds for each tier and gradually build positions over the entire window from September to October 2026 to avoid the risk of being trapped by short-term sharp declines.

2. Only increase investment when multiple indicators align; do not rely on a single signal
Price alone is not a good entry timing. Three conditions should be met simultaneously: the Fear and Greed Index at around 10, no sustained large net outflows from spot ETFs, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut materialized. Only increase positions when these three signals confirm each other. Relying on a single cycle or price prediction is not credible.

3. Strictly control the proportion of capital and avoid leverage
Crypto assets are highly volatile. Even with historical halving cycle patterns, risks such as regulation, macroeconomic recession, and exchange collapses (black swan events) cannot be ruled out. Only use idle spare money for crypto investments; do not divert funds for living expenses, children's education, or business operations. Stay away from futures contracts and margin leverage throughout the process to avoid forced liquidation during deep corrections.

4. Be rational about long-term price expectations; avoid blind optimism
The $150k–$230k target for 2029 is an optimistic scenario and is subject to multiple variables: tightening global crypto regulation, slowing institutional capital inflows, and reduced dollar liquidity could all cap upside. Do not assume that a 4x return will definitely materialize. Be mentally prepared for prolonged sideways movement or lower-than-expected gains.

5. Use cycle patterns only as a reference, not as the sole trading basis
The past four halving trends are historical outcomes. The market structure has fundamentally changed, with the influence of ETF institutions and global macro policy far exceeding the supply reduction effect of block rewards. If persistent negative factors emerge, the cycle timing and bottom price could deviate significantly from historical patterns. Stay flexible and do not rigidly adhere to the cycle script.

Understanding this is worth a million $BTC ‌@我要上热门