The more on-chain data I look at, the less I trust those "smart money" labels.

You see an address labeled "institutional wallet" — maybe they just used a multisig; you see "smart money bought" — maybe their hedge position was already set up on a CEX. Tags are essentially hindsight bias; no matter how elegant the clustering algorithm, it can't stop people from deliberately farming accounts to show you.

This is even more obvious in the Meme wave: an address gets rumored as "some KOL's associated wallet," you FOMO in only to find they've already left in batches. The fund flow direction is real, but the intent is fake — this mismatch is the most dangerous.

Now I treat address profiling as just a supplementary tool — it helps narrow down my observation scope, but I never use it as a decision-making basis. In short, on-chain lets you see how money moves, but not how people think. That's it for now.