$BTC Doesn’t everyone feel like they can smell a little bit of the “bull run” again?

Don’t be too optimistic about the market just because there’s no rate hike.

The impact of the high oil prices on the U.S. economy from the earlier period has gradually started to show: corporate costs are rising, consumer demand is under pressure, and signs of an economic slowdown are becoming increasingly clear. Many people think that when the unemployment rate goes up, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates, but I don’t agree.

If inflationary pressure hasn’t fully eased, even if employment weakens, the Federal Reserve may not cut rates right away. On the contrary, to control inflation, it’s not out of the question that they continue to keep interest rates high, or even adopt more hawkish policies. The longer high interest rates are maintained, the greater the pressure on the economy, and the risk of a recession will be further intensified.

As for Chuanzi trying every possible way to push oil prices down—of course that can relieve some inflation pressure, but it’s not the core factor that determines the market’s direction.

In my view, the market has already digested most of the positive news—namely the “no rate hikes” that was talked about.

What we need to be more wary of next is that market makers, using all kinds of news, push prices higher to lure retail investors into chasing. Once their chips have been offloaded enough, they’ll work with new negative news or geopolitical risks to complete another round of this cycle of “harvesting.”

So don’t fantasize that you can directly call out a big bull market just by a few speeches and a couple of press conferences. What truly determines the trend is always capital flows and liquidity—not just talk.

Pay more attention to capital, less to emotions; watch the charts more, and chase the news less. You must cultivate the ability to independently analyze market information. I hope everyone doesn’t become the bag holder for the news-driven narrative.