Bitcoin rebounds and breaks above $63,000, but this week ETFs saw a net outflow of $526 million. On-chain, however, new addresses appeared, investing $41.5 million to build positions, while a trader’s short stop-loss led to a loss of $3.5 million. Prices are rising, but the capital structure is being torn apart: institutions are continuing to retreat via ETFs, while retail traders and giant whales are taking over on-chain. Behind this is a fundamental disagreement among different pools of capital on how to judge the market phase. Active investors are on average holding an unrealized loss of about 20%, and TTM costs near $76,700 form strong resistance. If the rebound cannot break through the $64,000–$68,000 “chip” dense zone, then $70,000 is the bear market ceiling. Until the liquidity structure improves, every rise could become a new source of sell pressure.