How will gold actually move next week? Will it continue to rebound and surge past 4200, or will it oscillate around 4160? Today, let's not rely on mysticism; instead, let's thoroughly discuss next week's script from three perspectives: the Federal Reserve, geopolitical situation, and technical analysis.

First, look at the Federal Reserve. Friday's nonfarm payroll data was significantly below expectations, and the previous two months' numbers were also revised downward, effectively extinguishing short-term rate hike expectations. Additionally, recent Fed officials' remarks have softened, stating that short-term inflation risks have eased, which led to a downward revision of the probability of rate hikes in July and September. Real yields on U.S. Treasuries have fallen, lowering the cost of holding gold—this is the strongest core support for the recent rebound.

But don't get too excited; risks remain. There are still hawkish voices among Fed governors, emphasizing that core inflation is still far from 2% and not ruling out another rate hike this year. Interest rate futures are also pricing in a possible hike in Q4, so elevated rates will continue to cap gold prices. This rally is essentially a correction of expectations, not the start of a new bull market.

Then, the geopolitical front is relatively calm. There are no major new events in the Middle East, and no unexpected trouble between the U.S. and Iran. Risk aversion sentiment is "present but not intense," providing no fresh fuel for gold.

Now for technicals. On the weekly chart, bullish momentum is still running above the MACD zero line, with moving averages in a bullish alignment. The medium-to-long-term base is solid, with no basis for a sharp crash or bear market. However, the MACD has shown bearish divergence, and short-term selling pressure has been accumulating, making it difficult to produce a sustained directional move. It is more likely to consolidate and digest, exchanging time for space. The weekly support level also limits the downside, so the overall direction is upward, with short-term accumulation needed.

The key ranges for next week are locked in two zones: 4110-4150 and 4200-4225. Which direction it takes entirely depends on weekend news—either a development in the Middle East or collective statements from Fed officials.

Scenario 1 (Double Positive): Escalation in the Middle East + Dovish Fed. Risk aversion and rate cut expectations resonate, potentially pushing gold directly above 4200 to test 4380.

Scenario 2 (Neutral): No major news over the weekend. The market lacks new catalysts. A small rebound to around 4200, but if it fails to hold, it will drop back to the 4110-4150 range for further consolidation.

Scenario 3 (Double Negative): U.S.-Iran détente + Hawkish Fed speeches. Rate hike expectations reignite, U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rebound. The key support at 4150 fails to hold, and gold may fall back below 4100, ending this rally.

Personally, I believe Scenario 2 is the most likely. The weekend will probably be quiet, with no major news.

Finally, a reminder for everyone:

1. Position clearly—this is only a short-term correction rebound, not a reversal. Do not chase longs at high levels.

2. Keep an eye on weekend news—geopolitical developments and Fed remarks will directly determine Monday's opening direction.

3. Use a range-bound approach—4200 is the first resistance, with 4150 and 4110 as two support levels. Before effective breaks, selling high and buying low is more prudent.

4. Risk control always comes first—Fed inflation comments or sudden geopolitical events could break the range at any time. Manage your positions strictly. $XAUT