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i got asked this question in a quant trader interview. let's see how many of you can solve it.
you have 2 coins in a bag. one is fair, the other has heads on both sides.
you pick one at random and flip it 5 times.
you get 5 heads.
what's the probability you picked the unfair coin?
don't cheat. reply with your answer and your reasoning. i had 2 minutes to answer this.
i'll post the solution in 2 hours, most people get this wrong.