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Every time, someone says the four-year Bitcoin cycle has failed. What do you think?
The average historical drawdown after halving is about 70%, and the average time to bottom is about 12 months.
The fifth halving is in March 2028. Based on this trend, projecting this cycle:
Price dimension: This cycle's peak is approximately $124,000, with an average drawdown of 70%, so the bottom is roughly between $37,000 and $43,000.
Time dimension: Peak in October 2025. Adding 12 months, the bottom is approximately in Q4 2026.