#预测世界杯巴西VS挪威

Bitcoin July 4, 2026 Comprehensive View (Objective Market Analysis Only, Not Investment Advice)

I. Current Market Price (Intraday)

BTC is currently around $62,600, with an intraday high of $62,980 before encountering resistance and pulling back. It has been fluctuating narrowly throughout the day, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 1.8%-2%.

Phase low at $61,400, short-term range locked between $61,200 and $63,000:

- Short-term support: $62,000, strong support watershed at $61,200;
- Short-term resistance: $63,000 (failed to break through effectively twice intraday, heavy selling pressure);
Technically, the 14-day RSI was previously in oversold territory. The current recovery is only a short-term rebound, and the medium-term downtrend has not reversed. It is a weak oscillatory recovery market.

II. Core Drivers of Today’s Upside (Primarily Macro)

1. Cooling of US Nonfarm Payroll Data Reduces Rate Hike Expectations
June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k, significantly below expectations. The market has postponed the Fed's rate hike timeline to December. US bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold, US stock futures, and crypto assets rebounded simultaneously. BTC’s rise is a passive rebound driven by improved liquidity expectations, not active entry of new funds.
2. Slowing ETF Outflows
The sustained large redemptions in June stopped at the end of the month, but there is no data yet showing a sustained return of capital. Institutions remain generally cautious, and the rebound lacks sustained spot buying support.
3. Technical Repair After Oversold Conditions
The previous low reached $58,121. Short-term selling momentum has exhausted, combined with a recovery in risk sentiment, triggering a small oversold rebound.

III. Two Core Risk Factors Currently Suppressing the Market (Medium-Term Bearish Logic)

1. Expected Reduction of Holdings by Top BTC-Holding Companies
Strategy, the largest publicly traded BTC holder, broke its long-term "hold, don't sell" commitment by announcing it could sell Bitcoin to supplement cash flow. The market is concerned about sustained selling pressure from listed companies, capping upside potential.
2. The Fed’s High-Interest Rate Cycle is Not Over
Nonfarm data was weak for only one month, inflation data remains sticky, and the market has not priced in rate cuts, only a delay in hikes. As long as real yields remain high, high-volatility crypto assets will struggle to enter a sustained bull market, and rebounds will mostly be short-term impulsive moves.

IV. Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Layered Views

Short-term (1-3 days): Range-bound oscillation, difficult to break $63,000

Today’s rebound is emotional repair, with concentrated selling pressure at the $63,000 level. If it cannot break and hold above $63,000 with volume, it is likely to return to the $61,500-$62,000 range for consolidation.
Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see; do not chase the short-term rebound. If it breaks below $61,200, it will test the $60,000 integer support again.

Medium-term (1-3 months): Broad weak oscillation, repeated bottoming

BTC has fallen for two consecutive quarters in the first half of this year, nearly halving from its all-time high of $126k. There are currently no conditions for a trend reversal. The core variables to watch are two:
1. Multiple consecutive weak US inflation and employment data, leading the market to price in rate cuts;
2. Spot BTC ETF flows turning from outflows to sustained stable net inflows.
If either is missing, the medium-term bias remains oscillating downward, with key support at $58,000 and extreme scenarios potentially reaching the $55,000 range.

Long-term (cross-cycle perspective): Fundamentals remain intact, but outlook depends on liquidity cycles

Mining hash rate remains at historical highs, indicating strong resilience in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals. The short-term decline is due to macro liquidity and institutional rebalancing, not a collapse in asset value.
Common institutional consensus: A true new bull market will only begin when the Fed clearly ends tightening and enters a rate-cutting cycle (mainstream market expectations lean toward 2027).

V. Key Indicators to Monitor Going Forward

1. US 10-year real yield, US Dollar Index (DXY);
2. Daily net inflows/outflows of spot BTC ETF;
3. Announcements of changes in BTC holdings by Strategy and other listed companies;
4. Next week’s US CPI inflation data (will shape expectations for Fed policy direction).