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-24% crash, is 0.0040 the real bottom? $JCT
The 1-hour level just formed a 15-minute bottom divergence, but the daily candle is still breaking below the lower Bollinger Band.
First, the conclusion: short-term has a bounce demand, but the medium-term bearish trend has not changed. Currently, 0.0041 is only 2.5% away from the previous low of 0.0040. If this level is lost, the next support is at 0.0036 (the low on April 16). However, note that the 1-hour RSI is turning up from the oversold zone of 18, and the MACD histogram is narrowing—this is a typical oversold rebound signal.
Key data: 24h volume is 7.9M, 1.8 times the average of the past 7 days, indicating sufficient sell-off pressure. But the hurdle for the rebound lies in the 0.0046-0.0048 range, which has the hourly MA30 and a previous dense trading zone. If it breaks 0.0050 with volume, only then can we see a rebound high of 0.0055.
In terms of operation, I will only play short-term with a small position: buy at the 0.0040-0.0041 range, stop loss at 0.0038 (below the previous low). First target 0.0046, reduce half position there, second target 0.0050. Keep position size within 20%, after all, rebounds after such a crash are easy to be smashed. If 0.0040 is effectively broken, I will immediately stop loss and never hold the position.
To be honest, I haven't studied the fundamentals of this coin. Just looking at the K-line, it's a high-volatility asset, suitable for quick in and out. Remember, the first rebound after a crash is often tempting, but it's the easiest to trap people. My habit is: let the market form a bottom divergence pattern first, confirm that 0.0040 is an effective support, then add positions.
Technical targets: short-term rebound looks at the 0.0046-0.0050 range; medium-term, if it holds above 0.0055, the next target is 0.0062. Otherwise, 0.0036 is the next watershed.
(Personal trading record, not investment advice. I made money shorting BTC this month. I'm sharing because I think this level has gambling value. Judge for yourself.)