Is the tech surge a bull trap? The new main line for July has been set, and big money has quietly entered the market.

The core logic of this week's market is actually very clear. [Tao Stock Bar]
The rotation between high and low is still ongoing,
The All-A index continues to rebound,
The recovery of low-position oversold sectors is still progressing;
But the tech sector hasn't truly stabilized yet,
The intraday surges after a sharp decline
Are more of a oversold rebound, not a reversal signal.

The current market isn't driven by a single logic—
Two lines are running simultaneously,
And mixing them up will leave you slapping on both sides.

Line One: Low-position oversold recovery led by the All-A index

The All-A equal-weight index, representing most individual stocks,

Is still firmly above the 5-day moving average,
Corresponding to the recovery of low-position oversold sectors.
From securities to pharmaceuticals,
And today's military and robotics,
Funds are rotating to bottom-fish in sequence,
The essence is that capital exiting high-position tech
Is seeking low-position sectors for transition and hedging.
The characteristics of this kind of market:
Fast rotation, poor sustainability,
Up one day, resting for a few days.
Chasing highs is a death sentence; buying on dips yields small profits,
And it's easy to ride a roller coaster.

Line Two: Adjustment of old tech led by the ChiNext and STAR indices

The ChiNext and STAR boards are still below the 5-day moving average,

Corresponding to the AI hardware that has been rising for half a year—
Optical modules, PCBs, semiconductor chips—
Are now in a clear adjustment cycle.
Many are tempted by intraday surges,
Thinking, "It's fallen so much, it should rebound,"
Only to get trapped after buying in.
Until the trend reverses,
All surges are opportunities for funds to pull up and distribute,
Not reversal signals.

When will the ChiNext and STAR boards
Break back above the 5-day moving average with a big volume bullish candle?
Only then can we talk about a second wave of old tech.
Before that, watching more and acting less is the optimal strategy.

In simple terms:

Above the All-A line, focus on low positions;
Below the ChiNext/STAR lines, avoid old tech.
Each line has its own rhythm.
Don't use low-position logic to bottom-fish in tech,
And don't complain about low positions moving slowly while holding tech faith.

This week, low-position sectors rotated through everything,
But only one truly deserves a closer look:
Robotics.

Many think that since it's a high-to-low rotation,
Why not rotate into consumer or finance?
It's different.

For a sector to become a sustained main line,
It must satisfy three conditions:
Tech attributes, capital capacity, and consensus foundation.
Robotics hits all three,
While consumer and finance hit none.

The market's main line has always been big tech,
That has never changed.

Only the tech sector can drive market-wide sentiment,
Accommodate trillion-level capital,
And create sustained profit-making opportunities.

Finance and consumer are essentially
"Safe havens during tech adjustments,"
Transitional moves with limited capacity,
Unable to support a major main line.

Robotics, on the other hand, is a core direction for AI application implementation,
An extension of the tech industry chain,
Not a cross-style rotation.
Capital exiting AI hardware
Doesn't need to change logic or aesthetics—
It can directly pivot here,
Making the transition smooth.

To put it plainly,
It's not that funds don't want to do tech anymore;
It's that they don't want to do old tech that has already risen several times.
Finding a new branch within tech that is low-position
And has a story to tell is the most natural path for capital.

Robotics is not a single theme;
It's a complete industry chain:
Upstream core components
(Reducers, servo motors, sensors),
Midstream body manufacturing,
Downstream system integration and application scenarios.
From upstream to downstream, you can dig out dozens of core targets.

Only a sector of this scale
Can accommodate the massive funds flowing out of optical modules and chips.

In contrast, pharmaceuticals, consumer, and securities
Either lack capacity
Or are too defensive in logic,
Serving only as transitions,
Not as the main battlefield.

In recent days, the robotics sector has seen continuous volume expansion,
Already showing traces of big funds building positions.
Not a one-day pulse by hot money,
But institutional-level capital steadily entering.

A pretty accurate rule in A-shares:
At the end and beginning of each month,
A new main line is brewing.

By the end of the month, the old main line is exhausted,
And funds use the month-end rotation to reposition into new directions,
Then trade them for the first half of the month.

Late June happens to be
The transition point between the first half and second half of the year,
Also the node from AI hardware to AI applications.
Robotics breaking out with volume at this timing
Carries completely different significance.

It also aligns with the industrial logic:
First half of the year, we traded AI infrastructure
And the "shovel sellers" of hardware,
Because earnings were the first to materialize;
After hardware rose to high levels,
Capital naturally flows downstream to application ends.

Robotics, AI applications, and data computing
Are all core directions for AI implementation in the second half.
And among all application directions, robotics
Is the first to show a trend and release volume,
Making it the most likely main line for July.

Once you understand the underlying logic,
Operations become very clear.
Just match your situation to one of three scenarios.

1. Still holding high-position AI hardware

Don't stubbornly hold on to faith, and don't panic into selling.
Keep an eye on the ChiNext and STAR 5-day moving averages.
If a bounce fails to reclaim, reduce positions in batches,
Freeing up capital for new directions;
If it later breaks above the 5-day moving average with volume,
You can come back for the second wave then; it won't be too late.

In a downtrend, don't fight the trend,
And don't keep thinking, "It's fallen so much, it must bounce."
For stocks that have risen several times,
The adjustment in both time and space can exceed your expectations.

2. Wanting to position in the new robotics main line

Don't chase highs,
Especially back-row stocks that have surged consecutively.
New main lines just starting out
Will have repeated oscillations and shakeouts.

Wait for the sector to pull back to the 5-day or 10-day moving average,
Then buy the dip in batches,
Prioritizing targets in the core positions of the industry chain
With the most obvious volume expansion.

Use a trend-trading approach, not a high-frequency short-term approach.
Robotics is an institutional-led trend market,
Not a hot-money consecutive limit-up market.
Holding steady earns more than frequent rotation.

3. Wanting to trade low-position rotation transitions

Just focus on the All-A index.
As long as it's above the 5-day moving average, trade dips in securities, pharmaceuticals, etc.,
Sell when they rise, don't hold for the long term.
The core of rotational markets is quick entries and exits.
Today's leader may be tomorrow's laggard—
Chasing in means being left holding the bag.
Don't talk about long-term value in transitional markets.
The profit comes from the spread of oversold recovery.

The market always moves forward in cyclical rotations.
No sector rises forever, and no main line lasts forever.

Understand the big picture, and time the rotation correctly.