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Analyst: Active Bitcoin Investors Face Average Unrealized Loss of About 20%, Market Remains Under Cyclical Pressure

AirdropBlackHole
On July 4, crypto analyst Darkfost posted on social media that active Bitcoin (BTC) investors are currently experiencing an average unrealized loss of about 20%. This conclusion is based on the 'True Market Mean Price (TTM)' indicator, which excludes long-term inactive Bitcoin that may have been lost or are no longer participating in liquidity, thereby reflecting the cost level of the currently active circulating supply more accurately. Data shows that the current TMM is approximately $76,700, which has acted as a significant resistance level in recent market movements. Historically, during market correction phases, some investors tend to exit the market to avoid larger losses rather than continue holding, making this price point a critical area for short-term supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, the 'Active Value to Investor Value Ratio' is currently around 0.8, indicating a downward valuation range corresponding to about 20% unrealized losses. Although this level is under significant pressure, it has not yet reached the extreme range of 0.5 to 0.6 (approximately 40%-50% losses) seen in historical bear markets. Despite the market still exhibiting cyclical characteristics, the continued influx of institutional funds and ETFs has not altered the overall cyclical patterns of Bitcoin, and future trends should be observed with caution.
BTC1.04%
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