Active Bitcoin investors are on average 20% underwater. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the TTM indicator around $76,700 constitutes a key resistance level in the near term. The current unrealized loss is about 20%, but the extreme range in historical bear markets is 0.5-0.6, implying further downside. ETF capital recently saw a net inflow of $223 million, with selling pressure easing for the first time, but institutional funds have not changed the cyclical pattern.

The market is in a structural divergence: whales are accumulating, ETFs are outflowing; long-term holders are accumulating, short-term holders are selling at a loss. A 20% unrealized loss is not an historical extreme, and a rebound to the $64,000-$68,000 range will face cost-basis resistance, with $70,000 being the short-term ceiling in a bear market.
The risk is that if the unrealized loss continues to expand to historical extremes, it may trigger a new wave of liquidations. Currently, it feels more like a tug-of-war between bottoming out and a rebound, rather than a signal of trend reversal.
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