Trading Room Weekly Review | Issue 2

At the end of this week, I went through all my charts again.

BTC, ETH, Gold, the US Dollar Index, US stocks…

In the end, I found that what really changed this week wasn’t prices, but the market starting to reprice risk.

Many people think BTC rose a lot this week, with sentiment warming up, and the comments gradually shifting from "how much lower can it go" to "is a new high coming again."

But if you ask me what the biggest change was this week?

I have only one answer.

Institutions started coming back a bit, but retail came back much faster.

That’s what I’m most wary of this week.

In the first half of the week, because ETF capital turned back to net inflows, overall sentiment improved significantly. BTC reclaimed a key psychological level, and ETH followed suit in recovery. Many interpreted this as a confirmed trend reversal.

But in my view, it feels more like the market gave longs a chance to catch their breath, rather than declaring the match is already over.

This week, I’ve been looking at trading volume almost every day.

Prices can deceive.

Volume cannot.

During several upward pushes, I never saw that kind of explosive volume that would make me willing to significantly increase my position.

What does that mean?

It means more people are willing to buy, but those truly ready to go heavy haven’t returned yet.

This is also the biggest trap many people could fall into this week.

Seeing a rise, they start to believe in the rise.

Seeing one green candle, they forget how long the drop lasted before.

What the market loves most is to test people’s confidence right when they start rebuilding it.

So this week, I never abandoned my trading plan just because the market looked a little better.

I’d rather go slow than hand back the profits accumulated over several months due to a moment of excitement.

Another detail, I wonder if anyone else noticed.

This week, the correlation between Gold, US stocks, and BTC began to strengthen again.

This means the market is once again trading around the main theme of "when will the Fed cut rates."

As long as there’s no new change in this main theme, I believe risk assets will remain highly volatile for some time, rather than moving in a one-sided rally.

So what’s truly worth watching isn’t necessarily BTC, but the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields.

Often, they are the ones that determine where BTC goes next.

Let me share my views on next week.

I won’t switch my view from cautious to optimistic just because this week closed with a decent weekly candle.

Next week, I have only two focal points.

First, can ETF capital continue to show net inflows, rather being good one day and bad the next?

Second, after BTC breaks out, can volume continue to expand?

If both conditions are met, I’ll start increasing my position.

If only prices rise without capital confirmation, I’ll still define this as a recovery rally.

The biggest gain I got this week isn’t how much money I made.

It’s becoming increasingly certain of one thing.

What truly determines your account returns isn’t how many market moves you catch, but whether you have the ability to still execute your trading plan even when the market is at its most exciting.

As you continue trading, you’ll find that techniques become similar, and indicators become similar.

What always sets people apart is discipline.

See you next week in the trading room.
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌#非农爆冷打压加息预期