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Analyst: Active Bitcoin investors are facing an average floating loss of about 20%, and the market remains under cyclical pressure.

MarsBitNews
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Mars Finance News, July 4 — Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on social media that currently active Bitcoin (BTC) investors are, on average, experiencing an unrealized loss of about 20%. This conclusion is based on the "True Market Mean (TTM)" indicator, which excludes long-unmoved bitcoins that may be lost or no longer actively circulating, thus more accurately reflecting the cost basis of the active circulating supply. Data shows that TMM is currently around $76,700 and has acted as a significant resistance level in recent market movements. Historically, during market correction phases, some investors tend to exit the market rather than continue holding to avoid greater losses, making this price level a key battleground for short-term supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, the "Active Value to Investor Value Ratio" is currently around 0.8, which is in the undervaluation range and corresponds to an unrealized loss of about 20%. While this level is significantly stressed, it has not yet reached the extreme range of 0.5 to 0.6 (approximately 40%–50% loss) seen in historical bear markets. Although the market still exhibits cyclical characteristics, the continued inflow of institutional funds and ETFs has not yet altered Bitcoin's overall cycle pattern, and caution remains necessary for subsequent market movements.
BTC1.07%
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