Analyst: Current BTC active investors generally suffer 20% losses, cyclical adjustment continues.

Odaily Planet Daily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X platform that currently, active Bitcoin investors are overall in a floating loss state of about 20%, and market sentiment is in the "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the depth of historical bear market level pressure.

Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average holding cost of actively circulating BTC (excluding long-term unmoved, potentially lost or illiquid supply). From historical performance, this level once constituted a notable resistance zone in May, with some investors choosing to exit the market without losses or with small losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning that active investors overall have dropped about 20% relative to their cost basis. In comparison, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically falls to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to deeper drawdowns of about 40%–50%.

The analysis suggests that the entry of institutional funds and ETFs in this cycle has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical characteristics, and the market is still operating along its own structure. Although significant devaluation pressure has already appeared, it may not need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, caution is still needed regarding cyclical fluctuations.