Analyst: Active Bitcoin investors have an average unrealized loss of about 20%, and the market is still in a period of cyclical pressure.

BlockBeats News, July 4th, crypto analyst Darkfost posted on social media stating that currently, active Bitcoin (BTC) investors are experiencing an average unrealized loss of about 20%. This conclusion is based on the "True Market Mean (TTM)" indicator, which excludes Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time, may have been lost, or is no longer participating in circulation, thereby more accurately reflecting the cost basis of the current active circulating supply.

Data shows that the current TMM is approximately $76,700, acting as a significant resistance level in recent market movements. Historically, during market adjustment phases, some investors are more inclined to exit the market rather than continue holding to avoid incurring greater losses, making this price level a key area for short-term supply-demand dynamics.

Meanwhile, the "Active Value to Investor Value Ratio" is currently around 0.8, in a valuation downtrend range, corresponding to an unrealized loss of about 20%. Although this level is already under significant pressure, it has not yet reached the extreme range of 0.5 to 0.6 (roughly 40%–50% losses) seen in historical bear markets. While the market still exhibits cyclical characteristics, the ongoing influx of institutional capital and ETFs has not yet changed the overall cyclical pattern of Bitcoin. Subsequent trends still require cautious observation.