#非农爆冷打压加息预期 Nonfarm payrolls "surprise downside", Fed rate hike cools down! Global assets in turmoil

The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, also the second nonfarm report since Warsh became Fed Chair, is tugging at global market nerves.
U.S. June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k, far below market expectations of 113k, and prior month's 172k; the U.S. June unemployment rate was 4.2%, the lowest since June 2025, below market expectations of 4.3%, and prior month's 4.3%.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures surged after the nonfarm data release, as the market reduced bets on Fed rate hikes. Traders fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, versus October previously. Dongfang Jincheng previously stated in a research report that if nonfarm data exceeded expectations, it would again boost the probability of a Fed rate hike.
The importance of this report far exceeds normal times also because Warsh clearly stated on July 1 that interest rate forward guidance is "not suitable for the current policy environment," expecting the Fed to use real-time economic data to help make better decisions in the future. In this context, June nonfarm data is a key variable for the subsequent direction of Fed rates.
After three consecutive months of U.S. employment growth exceeding expectations, the slowdown in June employment growth prompted the market to lower expectations for Fed rate hikes. Although employment growth has declined, it remains well above the 2025 average target of adding 10k jobs per year.
In addition, the simultaneously released U.S. initial jobless claims for last week were 215k, versus expectations of 220k and prior week's 215k.
The current pricing logic for the precious metals market is still dominated by the Fed's policy path. After the weak nonfarm data, London spot gold surged straight up, with intraday gains expanding to over 2.6% at one point, hitting a high of $4,140.4 per ounce during the session, before pulling back somewhat.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 1.76 basis points to 4.457%; the U.S. dollar index once fell to a two-week low of 100.558.
U.S. stock futures rose, with Dow Jones futures up 0.36%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.71%. In terms of individual stocks, Nvidia rose 0.5% in pre-market trading, ASML, AMD, and TSMC rose 2%, while Intel, Micron Technology, and Lam Research once rose over 3%, having previously fallen between 1% and 4%. (Previously reported: "Chip stocks rally, U.S. stock pre-market sees big reversal")
Before the nonfarm data release, employment sentiment was already evident. The U.S. "small nonfarm" data released on July 1 was solid but below market expectations: U.S. June ADP employment was 98k, the smallest increase since March, below the expected 118k and prior month's 122k.