Bitcoin ETFs end 10-day outflow streak as weak jobs data lifts market sentiment

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded $221.7 million in net inflows, ending a 10-day withdrawal streak as softer U.S. economic data and easing Federal Reserve rate concerns helped Bitcoin recover from this week’s lows.

Summary

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in inflows, ending a 10-day streak of net withdrawals.
• Weak U.S. jobs data and softer Fed comments helped Bitcoin rebound about 7.7% from its weekly low.
• Analysts pointed to strong historical July performance and late-cycle trends as sentiment improved.

According to data from SoSoValue, Thursday’s inflows were the strongest daily total in about two months after investors pulled nearly $2.7 billion from the funds during the previous 10 trading sessions.

Source: SoSoValueThe rebound came as Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $61,000 after briefly dropping below $58,000 earlier this week. Per data from crypto.news, the cryptocurrency was recently trading near $62,500, about 7.7% above its weekly low.

Weak economic data revives ETF demand

Fidelity’s FBTC attracted the largest share of new money with $166 million in inflows, while ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added $91.8 million and VanEck’s HODL received $4.4 million. BlackRock’s IBIT remained the only major fund to post net withdrawals, losing $40.4 million and extending its outflow streak that began in mid-June.

The latest buying followed one of the toughest periods on record for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. SoSoValue data showed the products lost roughly $4.5 billion during June, making it their worst monthly performance since launch.

The turnaround came after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below market expectations of around 110,000. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation risks had eased, reducing expectations of additional interest rate increases and weakening the U.S. dollar.

The combination of weaker labor market data and a less hawkish tone from the Fed improved investor appetite for risk assets, helping Bitcoin recover alongside renewed demand for spot ETF products.

Ethereum investment products also benefited from the improved sentiment. Notably, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $14.9 million in net inflows on Wednesday, followed by another $29.1 million on Thursday.

Historical July trends add to recovery narrative

While the ETF rebound was driven by macroeconomic developments, several market participants pointed to historical price patterns that could support Bitcoin during July.

In a July 4 X post, analyst Cyclop said that Bitcoin has recorded gains exceeding 20% during July in every previous bear market, citing CoinGlass monthly return data. The post suggested the current recovery could resemble earlier bear-market rallies, although it did not predict that history would necessarily repeat.

Separately, crypto analyst Ardi argued that Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current correction based on previous market cycles. According to Ardi, earlier Bitcoin bear markets typically spent around one year forming a bottom, while the current correction has lasted roughly nine months.

He estimated this would place the market about three months away from the period that has historically offered the highest probability for a cycle low, although he cautioned that any bottom could arrive earlier or later than that statistical window.

Despite those historical comparisons, Thursday’s ETF inflows were tied directly to changing macroeconomic expectations, with investors responding to fresh U.S. economic data and signs that pressure for additional Federal Reserve tightening may be easing.