Analyst: Bitcoin short-term target rebound to 64k, 68k; standing above 70k counts as a strong rebound.

Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy breaks down the ceiling of this Bitcoin rebound. He points out that the average cost of current Bitcoin short-term chips (held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated between $64,000 and $68k, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is at $70k, which is often seen as the upper limit of a bear market rebound. Murphy personally leans toward this being a "weak rebound," with a range of $64,000 to $68,000, and only if it unexpectedly breaks above $70k would it be considered a strong rebound.
(Background: BTC Long-Term Holder Circulation Ratio Surges to 75%! Analyst Murphy: The Bear Market May Be Bottoming Out)
(Background Supplement: Mr. Beg's Analysis: BTC "Epic Bottom Resonance" Reappears! New Data on Deviation-Adjusted STH-RP Model)

Table of Contents

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• $70k is the Bear Market Ceiling
• Breakout, Resistance, Pullback: The Necessary Path to Bottoming
• Weak Rebound Scenario, Take Profit on Strong Rebound

Key Takeaways

• Murphy points out that Bitcoin's short-term chip costs are concentrated between $64,000 and $68k, and a rebound to this range will trigger selling pressure.
• The rebound is divided into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to chip costs, and $70k is the STH-RP, the bear market rebound ceiling.
• Market makers are in positive Gamma near $62k, and the next positive Gamma falls between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming resistance.

As Bitcoin oscillates around $62,000, crypto analyst Murphy frames this rebound from the perspective of chip costs. He says that the average cost of short-term chips held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months is concentrated between $64,000 and $68,000. In other words, every time the price rebounds near this range, those weak hands that have gone from unrealized loss to unrealized profit will concentratedly take profits.

As we discussed yesterday, the current average cost of short-term chips held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months is roughly between $64,000 and $68,000. For the cost trend line to gradually form a "convergence," the price must repeatedly attempt to break through.

At the same time, during the attempt to break through, it will encounter concentrated selling pressure from some weak hands cashing out when unrealized losses turn into profits. Thus, it forms a pattern of "breakout - resistance - pullback - re-breakout - re-resistance..." … https://t.co/ewysdsMuId pic.twitter.com/JCCgHleYQX

— Murphy (@Murphychen888) July 4, 2026

$70k is the Bear Market Ceiling

Based on this, Murphy divides the rebound expectations into three levels. $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned chip cost logic and are two cash-out walls that the price will encounter as it rises; $70,000 is where the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) lies. In the on-chain data framework, STH-RP is the bull-bear boundary for sentiment. If the price falls below it, it means short-term holders are in overall loss and the market is bearish.

Murphy emphasizes that every true trend reversal begins with the last successful break above this line.

"STH-RP is the bull-bear boundary for sentiment. Every trend reversal starts with the last break of this line." — Crypto Analyst Murphy

Breakout, Resistance, Pullback: The Necessary Path to Bottoming

Why does the price repeatedly attempt? Murphy believes that the cost trend line needs the price to repeatedly attempt to break through in order to gradually converge, but each breakout triggers concentrated cashing out by some chips when unrealized losses turn into profits, thus forming a cycle of "breakout, resistance, pullback, re-breakout."

This seemingly stagnant process is precisely the necessary condition for forming a bottom consensus. Data from the options market also gives the same resistance signal: market makers are in positive Gamma near $62,000, and the hedging behavior when the price approaches suppresses volatility; once broken through, the next positive Gamma position is exactly between $66,000 and $68,000, overlapping with the chip cost wall and forming another resistance.

Weak Rebound Scenario, Take Profit on Strong Rebound

Murphy himself is betting on a weak rebound, with a range of $64,000 to $68,000. He bluntly says that if Bitcoin unexpectedly breaks above $70,000 and confirms a strong rebound, he would instead consider taking partial profits on existing positions to leave room for subsequent adjustments. This is a strategy of first recognizing the situation and then deciding whether to advance or retreat.

The macro environment has not yet given direction. While the market is betting on the Fed cutting rates, institutions like Allianz warn that rates could rise in September. With the interest rate path uncertain, the ceiling for risk assets is hard to open.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP)?

STH-RP is the average purchase cost of short-term holders who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, often seen as the bull-bear boundary for sentiment. A price below it means short-term holders are in overall loss and the market is bearish, and this line is also a common ceiling for bear market rebounds.

Why does Murphy believe Bitcoin is in a weak rebound?

Murphy points out that short-term chip costs are concentrated between $64,000 and $68,000, and a rebound to this range will trigger selling pressure. Combined with the $70,000 STH-RP ceiling, he leans toward this being a weak rebound, unless it breaks above $70,000 to be considered a strong rebound.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please carefully assess risks before investing.