July 4, 2026 ETH Contract Technical Analysis Strategy

Market Overview

Current price $1608, intraday range $1582–$1629, following Bitcoin's post-NFP oversold repair. Ethereum is moving in sync with the broader market's upward oscillation, but its overall trend is weaker than BTC's. This rebound is merely a technical repair during the downtrend, and the medium-term bearish structure has not reversed. Weekend liquidity is thin, frequent wick spikes occur, and market randomness has increased significantly.

I. Key Levels

Resistance

1. Short-term first resistance: $1625–$1635, intraday high-pressure zone, preferred range for shorting during the day

2. Medium-term strong resistance: $1645–$1655, dense area of previous trapped longs, dividing line between bullish and bearish strength

3. Daily strong resistance: $1700, 20-day MA suppression, only a sustained hold above this level would enable trend reversal conditions

Support

1. Short-term first support: $1580–$1590, intraday bullish defense level

2. Second support: $1545, oscillation center of this rebound

3. Bullish-bearish dividing line: $1500, effective breakdown would completely break the rebound structure, opening downward space targeting $1450 and $1380

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Signals

Daily Level

All medium-to-long-term MAs are bearishly arranged, price has been trading below MA20 and MA50 for an extended period; Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with price only recovering from the lower band toward the middle band.
MACD fast and slow lines are in a death cross below the zero line, green bars have slightly narrowed, downside momentum has slowed but not turned; RSI has recovered to around 42, exiting the oversold zone, rebound volume continues to shrink—this is a typical weak rebound with no bottom confirmation signal yet.

4-Hour Level

Short-term MAs are temporarily bullishly arranged, short-term rebound has some continuity. However, after the price spike, volume quickly decays, candlesticks frequently show long upper wicks, heavy selling pressure above, and a small-level bearish divergence has formed, suggesting an imminent pullback and washout—not suitable for chasing longs.

Weekly Level

Weekly consecutive suppression by the 5-week MA, MACD has been in the bearish zone below zero for a long time, the downtrend channel remains intact. The market lacks incremental buying support, and this rebound is merely defined as a wave repair, with no bottom structure formed.

III. Contract Live Trading Plan

1. Shorting (mainline first choice, trend-following wave)

Entry range: Enter shorts at $1625–$1635 resistance
Stop loss: Above $1658
First target: $1590
Second target: $1545
Breakdown continuation: Upon effective breakdown below $1500, follow with shorts targeting $1450

2. Going long (light position short-term, only on retracement stabilization)

Entry range: On retrace to $1580–$1590 with stabilization, small position long
Stop loss: Below $1570
Take profit: $1620–$1630, exit all immediately upon reaching resistance, do not hold overnight positions

3. Breakout contingency plan

1. Volume-based hold above $1640: Abandon shorting idea, pullback to follow longs, target around $1680

2. Breakdown below $1500: Immediately abandon all longs, follow with shorts, do not bottom fish

IV. Weekend Risk Control Details

1. ETH volatility is higher than BTC, weekend wick spike risk is extremely high, total position should be controlled within 15%

2. All trades are short-term quick entries and exits, do not hold positions over the weekend

3. Strictly use stop loss, avoid going against the trend and holding, prevent deep wick spike stop-loss sweeps
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