July 4, 2026 ETH Contract Technical Analysis

Market Overview

Over the weekend, the contract price stood at $1,605, with an intraday fluctuation range of $1,582–$1,628. It followed Bitcoin in a post-NFP oversold rebound. ETH's overall performance is weaker than BTC's, moving in sync with the broader market's upward consolidation. This rebound is merely a technical correction during a downtrend, and the mid-term bearish structure has not been reversed. Over the weekend, the market depth experienced frequent sharp wicks, liquidity was relatively low, and short-term volatility was more random.

I. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels

1. First short-term resistance: $1,625–$1,630, intraday high-pressure zone, short-term short entry range

2. Mid-term strong resistance: $1,645–$1,650, dense area of previous trapped positions, bull-bear demarcation line

3. Daily strong resistance: near $1,700, suppressed by the 20-day moving average; only a firm hold above this level would enable a trend reversal

Support Levels

1. First short-term support: $1,580–$1,590, intraday bull defense level

2. Second support: $1,545, the center of this rebound's consolidation

3. Bull-bear demarcation line: $1,500; if it is effectively broken downward, the rebound structure will directly breach, opening up a new downward space with targets at $1,450 and $1,380

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicators

Daily Level

All mid-to-long-term moving averages are bearishly arranged downward, with the price long-term running below MA20 and MA50. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price is only recovering from the lower band to the middle band. The MACD's fast and slow lines are forming a death cross below the zero line, with the green bars slightly narrowing; bearish momentum is slowing but has not turned. The RSI has rebounded to around 42, exiting the oversold zone. Rebound volume continues to shrink, typical of a weak rebound, with no signs of a bottom stabilization.

4-Hour Level

Short-term moving averages are briefly bullishly arranged, supporting the short-term rebound's continuity. After the price spikes, volume rapidly declines, with frequent long upper wicks on the candles, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure. A minor-level bearish divergence has formed, with an impending pullback and shakeout, making it unsuitable for chasing longs.

Weekly Level

The weekly line has been under continuous pressure from the 5-week moving average. The MACD has long been in the bearish zone below the zero line, with the downtrend channel intact. Ethereum ETF funds continue to see outflows, and the market lacks buying support. This rebound is merely defined as a wave correction, having not formed a bottom structure.

III. Contract Trading Strategy

1. Short at Highs (Main Strategy)
When the price rebounds to the $1,625–$1,635 range and meets resistance, enter short positions with stop-loss above $1,655.
First target $1,590, second target $1,545; if the $1,500 level is effectively broken, follow the downward trend to short at $1,450.

2. Long at Lows (Light Short-Term)
When the price retraces to $1,580–$1,590 and stabilizes, open small light short-term long positions with stop-loss below $1,570.
Target $1,620–$1,630; exit immediately upon reaching the resistance zone, without holding mid-term positions.

3. Risk Control Reminder
ETH's volatility is higher than BTC's, and the risk of sharp wicks in weekend contracts has significantly increased. Strictly control position sizes, trade short-term quickly, and do not hold against the trend.
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