BTC is back to $62k.

It's up 2.27% in the past 24 hours. That's nearly a 7% recovery from the weekly low of $57,700.

The whole market is cheering "bottom fishing success."

But I care more about who's running and who's buying.

Because these two groups point in completely opposite directions.

Let's start with those who are running.

In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.5 billion—the worst month on record.

BlackRock's IBIT had 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows, losing a total of 35,980 BTC, about $2.24 billion. The outflow finally ended on July 2, but IBIT still saw $40.4 million in outflows that day.

For the first half of the year, ETFs saw a net outflow of $5.4 billion.

Citi directly slashed its 12-month BTC target price from $112,000 to $82,000.

Institutions are pulling out. Big money is fleeing.

But another group is quietly entering.

Listed companies have collectively net purchased over 160k BTC year-to-date, more than double the mining output in the same period.

Glassnode data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have shifted from "net distribution" to "net accumulation." The 30-day net position change has turned positive, with current net accumulation estimated between 50k and 100k BTC.

Even mid-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC are steadily increasing.

Long-term players are buying. Listed companies are buying. Retail is panicking.

What's more interesting is that money hasn't left the crypto market—it's being reallocated.

XRP spot ETFs saw inflows of over $62 million in June, with cumulative net inflows of about $1.48 billion.

Since its debut in mid-May, the Hyperliquid spot ETF has attracted nearly $160 million in net inflows. Grayscale's HYPE ETF even recorded $108 million in inflows on June 26 alone.

Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding; XRP and HYPE ETFs are sucking up the money.

Institutions haven't left. They just aren't buying BTC anymore.

The return to $60K has eased market panic. But this non-farm payroll data—only 57k new jobs, less than half of expectations—is not enough to turn the Fed dovish. Wages are rising, the unemployment rate is falling, and consumption remains strong.

So this is just a phase rebound, not a trend reversal.

To be honest—

I added some positions around $61,000 to $62,000.

Not because I'm sure this is the bottom. It's because my decision-making logic has changed.

Previously, I made decisions based on ETF inflows and outflows. Now I see that with $4.5 billion in ETF outflows, BTC actually bounced back from $57,700 to $62,000.

This shows ETFs are no longer the only dominant force.

Long-term holders are accumulating, listed companies are buying, and money is flowing into new ETFs like XRP and HYPE.

The market is diverging, and capital is repositioning.

I entered around 62K, with a stop loss at 58,500—if it breaks, I'm out. The first target is 66,000, the second is 70k.

The risk-reward ratio is about 3:1. I think it's worth the gamble.

But I want to remind you:

On Polymarket, traders see only a 21% probability of BTC reaching $70,000 by the end of the month.

The market is deeply divided.
$BTC ‌#
Some are running, some are buying. Some are panicking, some are positioning.

Which side are you on?$ETH ‌

Bull markets are born in despair, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria.

Right now—bouncing from $57,700 to $62,000, ETFs bleeding, long-term holders accumulating, only 21% on Polymarket believing it can reach 70K—
#非农爆冷打压加息预期 #