Core Time Milestones

The next (5th) Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur in April 2028 (approximately April 10-12 UTC, corresponding to block height 1,050,000). Due to fluctuations in network hash rate, the actual trigger date usually has a margin of ±7 days. After the halving, the block reward will decrease from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Complete Cycle Time Range

The corresponding complete cycle for the 5th halving (the next bull-bear cycle) has a time range roughly from April 2028 to Q1 2032, lasting about 4 years, which fully corresponds to Bitcoin's code rule that a halving is triggered every 210k blocks.

In-Cycle Phase Patterns (Based on Historical Data Extrapolation)

Referencing the general rhythm of the previous four cycles, the next cycle is roughly divided into three phases:

1. Post-halving Upward Phase (April 2028 – End of 2029): The supply reduction effect gradually becomes apparent, and the market transitions from consolidation and bottoming to a main upward wave. Historically, the bull market peak usually occurs 12-18 months after the halving.
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2. Bear Market Decline Phase (Full Year 2030): After the bull market peaks, a valuation regression begins, and the bottom is usually reached about 12 months after the peak.
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3. Bottom Consolidation and Accumulation Phase (2031 – Early 2032): Prices oscillate at low levels for a long time, accumulating energy for the next halving cycle.