#非农爆冷打压加息预期 Nonfarm Payrolls Slump Unexpectedly Dampens Rate Hike Expectations

The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in early July surprised the market—only 57k nonfarm payrolls were added that month, less than half of the market's median expectation of 115k. More concerning, the April and May data were revised down by a combined 74k, confirming that the previously perceived boom in employment had been significantly exaggerated.

This unexpectedly weak report quickly rewrote the Fed's rate script. After the data release, the interest rate swap market's pricing of the probability of a July rate hike quickly fell below 20%, far lower than the roughly one-third level before the data release; the timing of the rate hike fully priced in by the market was pushed back from October to December. U.S. bond yields immediately declined—the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.11%; the U.S. dollar index plunged nearly 40 points in the short term; gold rose for a second consecutive day, topping $4,150 per ounce.

However, the data was not uniformly weak. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but this improvement was not due to an increase in jobs—the labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%, as 832k people left the labor force that month. Wage growth remained sticky, with average hourly earnings rising 3.5% year-over-year, providing ongoing support for services inflation. At the industry level, the picture was also mixed: professional and business services, healthcare, and others continued to absorb labor, while the leisure and hospitality sector lost 61k jobs in a single month.

Overall, this report temporarily relieved market fears that "overheated employment would force the Fed to restart rate hikes," but wage stickiness and subsequent inflation data remain key variables for determining the direction of interest rates. The June CPI report due on July 14 will be the next key point for the market to recalibrate the probability of rate hikes.