World Cup upsets are frequent. Is "dumb money" in prediction markets more worth paying attention to than "smart money"?

Original Title: "World Cup Upsets Keep Coming, the 'Dumb Money' in Prediction Markets Has Me in Stitches"
Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

The World Cup, 20 days in.

Prediction market trading volume keeps climbing, with massive wins and losses playing out in turn. Previously, we looked at the "big wins & big losses" cases after the World Cup kicked off, and also detailed how to build the strategies and tools for following smart money.

Today, besides laughing at the "big smart money," we want to discuss whether classic loss cases have any value as contrarian indicators.

Spain - Cape Verde draw: Goalkeeper makes 7 incredible saves, whale loses $1 million trying to earn $85k

40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha, gasping for air, looked at the opponents on the pitch, body slightly hunched, ready to pounce on any incoming shot.

For a goalkeeper worth only €50k, many didn't think much of him or the island nation of Cape Verde before the match; after all, their opponent was a top World Cup powerhouse – Spain. Just their star player Lamine Yamal alone is worth €200 million, ranking first among all World Cup players, 4,000 times Vozinha's value. Spain's total squad value is a staggering €1.2 billion, making them a pre-tournament favorite. La Liga includes giants like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, with countless本土 stars.

But football is not simply a game of comparing player values; it's a sport decided by live performance.

For the players of Cape Verde's national team, just standing on the World Cup stage, enjoying the joy of football and the adrenaline rush of competition, is already enough.

(Note: According to commentator Guan Zeyuan, Cape Verde, an Atlantic island nation, has a total land area of about 4,000 square kilometers. They hold football tournaments on each island to determine the winning team, and then ultimately select the players for the World Cup squad – somewhat like China's "Village BA" or "Super League" regional events.)

During the match, Spain fired 27 shots, 7 on target, but in the end, all attacks were successfully neutralized by Vozinha and his teammates. As the referee's final whistle blew, the score between Spain and Cape Verde ended at "0-0." Such an upset left many prediction market players instantly broke.

Before the match, @betoor619 invested $1 million at $0.92 per share on "Spain beats Cape Verde." Many saw this as a "prediction market savings plan," with some even thinking it would be a "one-sided slaughter, a high-scoring blowout."

But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, didn't accept that outcome. They played tightly, defended compactly, fought aggressively, and executed their counter-attacking strategy exceptionally well.

In the end, @betoor619 did not get the expected $85k profit from the "savings plan," but instead lost the entire $1 million principal.

And this match might have been the start of the frequent upsets at this World Cup, where strong teams were held to draws by weaker ones, making betting on a draw the best option in the prediction market.

Recommended reading: "Whether You Know Football or Not, Is Betting on a Draw the Best Strategy for This World Cup?"

Portugal - DR Congo draw: 41-year-old Ronaldo's glory fades, smart money loses over $240k as a lesson

On June 18, the World Cup group stage, Group K. The heavily favored strong team Portugal faced DR Congo, making their first World Cup appearance.

According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, Portugal's men's team ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands, with relatively strong overall strength. Especially with Ronaldo – "5 Champions League titles, 5 Ballon d'Ors, 6 World Cup appearances, all-time top scorer" – many fans were confident in Portugal's performance before the match. Many expected Ronaldo to score in this game, becoming the "first player to score in 6 consecutive World Cups," surpassing Messi.

On the other side, DR Congo was ranked only 45th in the world by FIFA. This participation was also DR Congo's return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.

In terms of player value comparison, Portugal's total squad value exceeded €1 billion, including 2 "€85k men" and 8 top-tier players worth over €40 million each. DR Congo's total squad value was about €150 million, just one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo stated they hoped to "rewrite humiliating history, at least reach the knockout stage, and enter the top 32."

Back to the match. On game day, Ronaldo was in Portugal's starting lineup, but in the end, he had 0 shots on target from 3 attempts; Portugal as a whole had 1 shot on target from 7, with clearly insufficient attacking firepower.

Although Portugal scored a lightning goal in under 7 minutes through 19-year-old João Neves, DR Congo equalized at the last second during first-half stoppage time, when Portugal was most prone to complacency and laxity.

Like Cape Verde, DR Congo's counter-attacking defense was also excellent, with tight man-marking; and their three center-backs, averaging over 185 cm in height, further limited Ronaldo's influence. Portugal's midfield and defense were under immense pressure, ultimately failing to secure an opening win.

In the prediction market, a smart money address with a 49% win rate spent over $243k predicting "Portugal beats DR Congo" at an average entry price of $0.76, ending in a loss.

In the knockout match between England and DR Congo that ended today, DR Congo briefly took the lead with a counter-attacking goal, but England narrowly avoided a second upset by winning 2-1 thanks to Kane's brace. That spared England from a repeat of the "weak team drawing with or even beating a strong team" scenario.

Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde draw: Dumb money bets on Cape Verde win, loses $80k

In World Cup match predictions, every time you try to apply past experience, the trend reverses.

In the earlier group stage, Cape Verde, relying on goalkeeper Vozinha and the whole team's strict counter-attacking defense, defeated opponents and later drew with Uruguay again.

Given this, the "big brains" in the prediction market boldly predicted that Cape Verde would win before their match against Saudi Arabia.

But in the end, Cape Verde once again relied on their extremely resilient defensive style and the team's united strategy execution to draw 0-0 with Saudi Arabia.

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, the top contrarian address @Zzzz87 was wrong again, predicting a Cape Verde win over Saudi Arabia and losing another $80k. Earlier, this address had lost $620k since the World Cup started, with its win rate dropping below 40%, and typically, the larger the position, the lower the win rate.

In the past week, @Zzzz87 learned their lesson and changed strategy, no longer insisting on weak-team upsets, but instead betting on strong teams to win directly. Indeed, as the knockout rounds began, cases of strong teams being overturned gradually decreased. @Zzzz87's "bet on strong teams" strategy quickly paid off, with profit ratios ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.

Therefore, although this address lost around $255k in the past month, its profit over the past week reached about $269k.

Currently, this address holds multiple prediction events for matches like "Switzerland vs. Algeria," "Spain vs. Austria," "Portugal vs. Croatia," and "Argentina vs. Cape Verde," with bet amounts ranging from a few thousand dollars to $36k. The results will be known tomorrow.

A football is round; anything is possible

After looking at many cases, will the former "dumb contrarian" learn lessons and become "smart money," or will the "top contrarian curse" strike again?

Hard to say definitively, because some delete their accounts and run, refusing to be observed by "survivorship bias," while others have wins and losses balanced, or use multiple accounts to hedge.

Whether playing matches or predicting them, the only certainty is "uncertainty."

The result of the World Cup is not simply a comparison of team values, nor a contest of national strength or training systems, nor does it change based on the will or wealth of outside participants. Whether you follow the smart money or go against the dumb money, you need to watch the games, enjoy them, and adjust flexibly.

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