Analysis: The target range for this round of Bitcoin's weak rebound is $64,000 to $68k, with $70k being the short-term rebound ceiling in a bear market.

BlockBeats news, July 4, crypto analyst Murphy noted that the average cost of current Bitcoin short-term coin holdings (held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price must repeatedly try to break through for the cost trend line to gradually converge, but each attempt to break through will also trigger some shaky short-term holders to cash out when floating losses turn into floating gains. This “breakout—encounter resistance—pullback—break out again” cycle is precisely the necessary process for forming bottom consensus.

Based on this, the analyst splits the rebound expectations for this round into three tiers: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is the location of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), which is often seen as the ceiling of a bear-market rally. In an on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP represents the emotional bull-bear dividing line, and every trend reversal begins with the most recent breakout above this line.

The analyst personally leans toward this round being a “weak rebound,” expecting a rebound into the $64,000 to $68,000 range. If it unexpectedly breaks above $70,000, it would be defined as a strong rebound; at that time, they would instead consider taking partial profits from existing positions to leave room for subsequent adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state near $62,000, and hedging behavior when the price approaches will suppress volatility. After a breakout, the next positive Gamma area happens to fall between $66,000 and $68,000, which likewise forms a resistance zone.