Brother Xing Talks Crypto丨 0704 $BTC BTC Today's Strategy

Entry Point: 63000-63500 Stop Loss 63900

Take Profit Targets:
First Target: 61800
Second Target: 61000

News

Independence Day Liquidity Shrinkage: Today coincides with the US Independence Day market closure, causing a significant drop in traditional financial market liquidity, and the crypto market also faces liquidity contraction. Under thin order books, market volatility elasticity is easily amplified, leading to sudden violent price movements without warning.

Weak Recovery Market: BTC's daily-level downtrend structure has not been broken; the current rise is merely a weak recovery after the drop. Without substantial buying support, the original trend is likely to resume after the recovery is complete.

Institutional Fund Outflow Pressure: Despite a brief period of capital inflow recently, BTC spot ETFs overall still face huge outflow pressure. The aftermath of June's record single-month redemption wave has not subsided, and institutions are still reducing their crypto risk exposure.

Macro Policy Suppression: The Fed's hawkish stance and potential interest rate hike expectations from major global economies continue to suppress risk asset performance. In a liquidity contraction environment, Bitcoin typically underperforms, and rebounds often face selling pressure.

Derivatives Market Bearish: The put option ratio in the options market is relatively high, indicating that institutional funds are actively hedging downside risk. Without sustained spot ETF inflows, the current rebound looks more like a liquidity trap than a genuine bottom reversal.

Reasons

Daily-Level Resistance: BTC's daily downtrend structure remains unbroken. The current price rebound to the 63000-63500 range faces dual strong resistance from previous dense trapped positions and short-term moving averages (such as the 200-day SMA), making upward breakout extremely difficult.

Liquidity Trap Risk: Against the backdrop of US stock market closure and weak liquidity, small amounts of capital can trigger large fluctuations. Short funds are taking advantage of this liquidity vacuum to precisely place short positions near resistance levels, betting on downside space.

Excellent Risk-Reward Ratio: Placing shorts in the 63000-63500 range requires a stop loss of only 400-500 points (above 63900), but the downside targets are 61800 or even 61000, offering ample room. Following the retracement trend after the daily-level weak recovery, this is a high-probability, high risk-reward trade.

Intraday focus on range trading, prioritizing shorting at highs. If the price first drops to around 61000 and stabilizes, you can reverse and go long with a small position to catch a rebound, but the main theme remains shorting on rallies, following the current weak recovery rhythm of BTC. #BTC回升，机构资金流向分化