I didn't participate in the Argentina vs. Cape Verde match.

The regular time gave a win probability close to 90%, which I think is a bit mismatched.
Cape Verde is essentially "Portugal's second team," not the "small African island nation team" many imagine.
It is a Portuguese-speaking country, and many of its players grew up in European football systems like Portugal and the Netherlands. Through reverse integration of diaspora and dual-citizenship players, this small country of 500k people was brought into the World Cup knockout stage.
Plus, with the goalkeeper having an outstanding performance, being able to draw against Spain and Uruguay in the group stage is not something that can be simply summed up as "lucky."
I increasingly feel that betting on matches and stock investing are very similar.
You can't just look at the labels.
When many people see Cape Verde, only a few words come to mind:
African island nation
Population 500k
World Cup newcomer
And then they think the strong team can easily crush them.
This is as dangerous as analyzing stocks with only one logic when investing.
Seeing a small company, they think it has no moat.
Seeing Chinese stocks, they think they are cheap.
Seeing AI, they think it's a bubble.
Linear thinking will eventually kill you.