From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave, Volume-Price Analysis, Order Flow, and Price Action, a brief analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC I. Dow Theory
Primary Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the June 3 high of 67,410 is extremely clear and steep. The price has plummeted from 67,410, with several bounces (June 15 rebound to 67,254, June 22 rebound to 65,549) failing to break the previous high, forming a typical "lower highs" bearish pattern. After the June 22 high of 65,549, bears struck again, with a panic sell-off on June 25 to 58,026, and a new low of 57,720 on July 1, a drop of about 9,690. On the afternoon of July 2, a V-shaped rebound occurred, reaching a high of 61,881, but fell back to around 59,500 in the morning of July 3. On the morning of July 4, bulls struck again, breaking 61,000 and pushing up to around 62,100. The primary trend remains deeply bearish, but there is clear buying support near 57,700, and short-term lows are moving higher.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The short-term downtrend since the July 1 low of 57,720 is undergoing a key turning point. The short-term high moved down from 61,881 (7-02 17:15) to 60,464 (7-03 16:00), but the morning of July 4 broke the previous high of 61,881, showing signs of "higher highs." Short-term lows moved up from 57,720 (7-01 01:00) to 58,255 (7-01 12:00), 59,307 (7-02 14:45), and 59,500 (7-03 13:15). On the morning of July 4, a "higher low" was confirmed with volume breaking above 61,500, shifting the short-term trend from "consolidation bottoming" to "rebound confirmation."
Dow Conclusion: The primary trend remains deeply bearish, but downward momentum has significantly weakened. The short-term trend is entering a rebound confirmation phase. 60,000–60,500 is the short-term lifeline; if lost, the downside opens to 58,000–57,700; if it can firmly hold 62,500 and break 63,000, the short-term downtrend will confirm a reversal, with a rebound target of 64,000–65,500.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal Structure: On the 15-minute level, the chart shows multiple valid top and bottom fractals.
Top Fractals: Appear at 65,549 (June 22 14:00), 64,196 (June 23 01:00), 61,828 (June 25 01:00), 61,881 (July 2 17:15), etc. The top fractals show a clear downward shift, from the 65,000 range down to 61,000–62,000, indicating bears still dominate.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 58,026 (June 25 13:00), 57,720 (July 1 01:00), 58,255 (July 1 12:00), 59,307 (July 2 14:45), 59,500 (July 3 13:15), etc. The bottom fractals show a significant upward shift from July 1–3, from 57,720 to the 59,500 range, indicating that buying interest is recovering.
Bi and Segments: From the top fractal at 65,549 to the bottom fractal at 57,720 (July 1 01:00), a very strong downward bi is formed, with a drop of about 7,829, extremely strong. Then from the bottom fractal at 57,720 to the top fractal at 61,881 (July 2 17:15), an upward bi is formed, with a gain of about 4,161, relatively strong. Then from the top fractal at 61,881 to the bottom fractal at 59,500 (July 3 13:15), a downward bi is formed, with a drop of about 2,381, moderate. Currently, starting from the bottom fractal at 59,500, a new upward bi is under construction, having rebounded to 62,100, a gain of about 2,600.
Central Zone: In the 62,000–64,000 range, from June 22–24, candles are densely interwoven, forming a Chan-theory central zone. The price has completely broken below the lower edge of that central zone, accelerating the decline after the breakdown. In the 58,000–61,500 range, from June 25 to July 3, candles are densely interwoven, forming a new bottoming central zone. The current price of 62,100 has broken above the upper edge of this central zone, indicating a breakout upward.
Chan Conclusion: The downward bi was very strong (-7,829) but an upward bi has appeared (+4,161), and the latest upward bi is relatively strong (+2,600). Currently in the extension phase of the upward bi after the end of the downward bi. Short term, watch whether an effective top fractal forms near 61,881; if not, the upward bi extends with a target of 63,000–64,000; if 60,500 is lost and 59,500 is broken, the downward bi restarts.
III. Elliott Wave
Based on the wave structure at the 1-hour level, the wave count since the June 3 high of 67,410 shows a typical "five-wave decline completed + ABC bounce underway" structure:
Wave 1 (plunge): From 67,410 down to 63,250 (June 4), about -4,160.
Wave 2 (bounce): From 63,250 up to 67,254 (June 15), about +4,004. Wave 2 bounce is very strong, almost fully retracing Wave 1, forming a typical "flat" correction.
Wave 3 (main down wave): From 67,254 down to 58,026 (June 25), about -9,228. This is the most destructive main down wave.
Wave 4 (bounce): From 58,026 up to 65,549 (June 22), about +7,523. Wave 4 bounce is relatively strong but fails to break the Wave 2 high.
Wave 5 (final plunge): From 65,549 down to 57,720 (July 1), about -7,829. Wave 5 is about 0.85 times the length of Wave 3, a typical ending wave.
Wave A (bounce): From 57,720 up to 61,881 (July 2), about +4,161. Wave A bounce is relatively strong, reaching the 0.5 retracement level of Wave 5 (about 61,635).
Wave B (pullback): From 61,881 down to 59,500 (July 3 13:15), about -2,381. Wave B pullback is moderate, retracing 57.2% of Wave A, indicating that buying power is still accumulating.
Wave C (expected): If Wave B ends at 59,500, Wave C equals Wave A in length, target about 63,661; if Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, target about 65,450–66,000.
Elliott Conclusion: Currently in the ABC bounce after the five-wave decline, with Wave C underway. Wave B ending at 59,500 is a positive signal; a Wave C up move is highly probable. If Wave C can break 63,000 and continue upward, the bounce target is 64,500–66,000; if Wave B breaks below 57,720, the five-wave decline extends, targeting 55,000–53,000.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: In the June 25 plunge, there was extremely clear volume expansion, with panic selling concentrated. On July 1, when a new low of 57,720 was made, volume expanded significantly, indicating full release of panic selling. During the July 2 rebound, volume expanded moderately; the July 3 pullback saw shrinking volume; the July 4 morning breakout above 61,500 saw clear volume expansion. Overall, the volume-price combination is positive: "plunge with volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with moderate volume + breakout with volume."
Key Volume-Price Nodes:
June 25 13:00: A large bearish candle (volume about 1.67B), from 60,500 down to 58,026, body about 2,474, confirming panic selling and forming a stage bottom.
July 1 01:00: A large bearish candle (volume about 1.07B), from 59,500 down to 57,720, body about 1,780, but quickly recovered, forming a "bear trap."
July 1 12:00: A large bullish candle (volume about 860M), from 58,255 up to 60,444, body about 2,189, confirming that bulls began to counterattack.
July 2 14:00: A large bullish candle (volume about 750M), from 61,335 up to 62,128, body about 793, confirming continued bullish strength.
July 4 07:45: A large bullish candle (volume about 680M), from 61,200 up to 62,100, body about 900, confirming Wave C unfolding.
Last 10 15-minute candles: From 61,800 up to 62,100 with continuous volume expansion, bulls dominate in the 61,500–62,500 range.
Volume-Price Conclusion: After the massive volume on July 1 plunge, overall volume shrank while bottoming, and on July 4 breakout with volume, a positive volume-price signal. Key observation: if the rebound to 62,500–63,000 shows a volume breakout, Wave C is confirmed; if a drop below 60,000 occurs with renewed volume, the five-wave decline extends.
V. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The point of control (POC) for the last 5 days is at 60,074. This is the most densely traded area for both bulls and bears, forming the most important value area mid-point. The current price of 62,100 is about 2,026 above the POC, in a premium position above the value area.
Current Position Analysis: Price at 62,100 is above the POC of 60,074, above the upper edge of the Value Area (58,281–60,522). In order flow theory, breaking above the upper edge of the Value Area means bulls have a temporary advantage. The current price is in the short-term premium zone above the Value Area, requiring volume to confirm the breakout.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
62,000–64,000: Upper resistance HVN (June 22–24 dense trading zone, currently strong resistance)
59,000–61,000: Core support HVN (July 1–3 dense trading zone, current support)
57,700–58,500: Extreme support HVN (massive volume absorption zone after July 1 plunge)
64,500–66,000: Strong resistance HVN (June 15–20 dense trading zone)
Delta Analysis: Delta estimate shows that during the July 1 01:00 plunge, Delta turned deeply negative (around -4 billion level), confirming active selling dominance. During the July 1 12:00 rebound, Delta quickly turned positive (+2.5 billion level), confirming active buying inflow near 58,000. During the July 4 07:45 upward move, Delta turned deeply positive again (+3.5 billion level), confirming aggressive buying by bulls. Current Delta MA12 has recovered from deeply negative territory to positive territory (+1.5 billion level), showing that buying power is recovering and selling power is weakening.
Order Flow Conclusion: Price has broken above POC 60,074 and the upper edge of the Value Area 60,522, with bulls holding the short-term advantage. Above, 62,000–62,500 and 64,000–65,000 are two key HVN resistance levels. If sustained Delta positive + volume breakout occurs at these levels, a move to 64,500 is likely; if Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 60,000, the five-wave decline extends.
VI. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
Strong Resistance: 67,410 (stage high), 67,254 (June 15 secondary high), 65,549 (June 22 rebound high)
Key Resistance: 64,000 (round number), 62,500 (June 24 high), 61,881 (July 2 rebound high), 61,000 (round number)
Key Support: 60,500 (July 3 consolidation lower edge), 60,000 (round number), 59,500 (July 3 low), 58,255 (July 1 low), 57,720 (July 1 plunge low)
Candlestick Patterns:
July 1 01:00: A large bearish candle with a very long lower shadow (body about -1,780, lower shadow about 1,400), from 59,500 plunging to 57,720 then bouncing to 59,100, forming a "hammer" bottom pattern.
July 1 12:00: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body about 2,189), from 58,255 surging to 60,444, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
July 4 07:45: A bullish candle with a short upper shadow (body about 900), from 61,200 rising to 62,100, showing continued bullish momentum.
July 3 16:15: A small bearish candle with shrinking volume (body -593), from 61,881 falling to 59,500, showing light selling pressure near 61,800 and moderate pullback.
Trend Structure:
Short-term: The lower rail of the descending channel was briefly broken and then recovered (July 1 pierced the 58,000 rail and V-rebounded); a new descending channel is being corrected.
Medium-term: The downtrend line since June 3 high of 67,410 remains valid; price has not yet broken above this trend line.
Price Action Conclusion: Short-term, in the rebound confirmation zone after the plunge. 60,000 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 62,500 is the bull-bear watershed: if broken above, Wave C rebound is confirmed, target 64,000–65,000; if lost, a retest of 59,500–58,500.
Comprehensive Analysis
Dow Theory indicates that the primary trend remains deeply bearish but downward momentum has significantly weakened, with the short-term trend entering rebound confirmation, key levels at 62,500 (up) and 60,000 (down). Chan Theory shows the downward bi was very strong (-7,829) but the latest upward bi is relatively strong (+2,600), currently in the extension phase of the upward bi. Elliott Wave confirms the five-wave decline is complete, with ABC bounce having Wave A (+4,161) and Wave B pullback (-2,381), Wave C target at 63,661–66,000. Volume-price analysis shows a positive combination of "plunge with volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with moderate volume + breakout with volume." Order flow shows POC at 60,074, price above the Value Area upper edge, Delta MA12 recovered from deeply negative to positive. Price action shows a "hammer" + "bullish engulfing" double bottom pattern, short-term bullish with Wave C unfolding.
Short-term Strategy Suggestions:
Bullish scenario: If price near 60,500–61,000 shows shrinking volume + bottom fractal + Delta positive, consider going long, target 62,500 → 63,500, stop loss 59,800.
Bearish scenario: If a rebound to 62,500–63,000 shows a top fractal with volume decline, confirming Wave C end, consider short, target 61,000 → 60,000, stop loss 63,500.
Current state: 62,100 is in the rebound confirmation phase, short-term bulls have the advantage. Suggest waiting for a breakout above 62,500 to confirm Wave C extension before chasing, or wait for a pullback to 61,000–61,500 to confirm support before considering long.