#非农爆冷打压加息预期 The Federal Reserve meeting at the end of July is almost certain to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the probability of a rate cut being negligible.

Although the June non-farm payroll data was weaker than expected, low unemployment and sticky inflation provide the Fed with no basis for shifting to an easing stance, merely delaying the potential timing of a rate hike. Market focus has shifted to September-October. If the unemployment rate continues to rise and core PCE falls below 3%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October will significantly increase; if the data rises, it may trigger expectations of a rate hike.

The current policy stance remains "data-dependent but leaning cautious," and a single month's non-farm data is not enough to change the Fed's concerns about inflation resilience.$BTC ‌ Major players are exploiting the "most people are bearish" mentality to engineer a targeted short squeeze in the 62,000-64,500 range. At this point, one should go with the flow and be wary of bear traps. Once the price reaches around 64,500, be cautious of the market maker reversing to dump on those unwinding short positions, while long positions' profits suddenly shrink or even turn into paper losses.