Morgan Stanley and Saylor: One Speech, Three Flaws


JPMorgan publicly called out Strategy.
Target of criticism: the $1.25 billion sell cap. Characterization: adds "unnecessary two-way risk" to the market. Prescription: don't sell coins, issue additional shares to build cash reserves.
Three facts, laid out in order.
First. "Two-way risk" is valid. In the past, the market only needed to guard against one direction for Strategy: it buying. Now there is an additional one: it may sell. Every time the coin price drops, the market must ask one more question: is it selling? Suspicion itself is selling pressure.
Second. The prescription has a flaw. Strategy's market cap is already lower than the value of its coin holdings, with mNAV < 1. Issuing additional shares at this point means each share is sold at a discount, diluting all existing shareholders. JPMorgan cannot be unaware of this. The diagnosis is accurate, but the treatment is risky.
Third. Each has its own position. JPMorgan is at the top of traditional finance, and its stance on crypto has always swayed with market trends. Strategy's approved sell plan can also be interpreted as responsible financial management. Both have their own stakes, and both have reasons.
Indeterminate. Just note one change.
A year ago, Wall Street studied Strategy with the question of how to replicate this model. Now the question is: how to isolate this risk.
From a template to a risk source, in twelve months.
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